Temporal trends in vehicle fatalities on South Australian roads: an analysis of the holiday road toll

Abstract

The following study was undertaken to determine whether there has been any change in the numbers of fatalities on South Australian roads over the Christmas–New Year and Easter holiday periods from 1991–2009. The expected number of road deaths was calculated from the fatality rates during the remainder of the year. There were 1529 fatalities, 79 of which occurred during the two major holiday periods. In 12/22 holiday periods, the observed number of fatalities was fewer than the expected number, and in five of the holiday periods the observed number of deaths was at or around the expected number. However, in five (22.7%) of the holiday periods, the observed number was greater than expected, which included three occasions where the observed number of fatalities was 2–3 times greater than the expected mean. The number of deaths that exceeded the expected number was 45/79 (57%), while the number of deaths in the holiday periods that were either fewer than or around the expected number was 34/79 (43%). While the absolute number of vehicle fatalities in South Australia is decreasing, the increased number of fatalities in 22.7% of the holiday periods suggests that certain crashes may not be prevented by current strategies.