Temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer across BRICS from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis

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IntroductionThis study aimed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers of the kidney cancer burden across BRICS member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) from 1990 to 2021. Given the significant global rise in kidney cancer incidence, elucidating its epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors in countries at different stages of economic development is crucial for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.MethodsThis study innovatively integrated Joinpoint regression and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to quantify trends in kidney cancer incidence and mortality in BRICS nations. The APC model was employed to disentangle the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the disease burden. These findings were subsequently interpreted in the context of national socioeconomic conditions and health policies to identify key drivers.ResultsGlobally, kidney cancer incidence increased by 142.74% from 1990 to 2021. Saudi Arabia experienced the most dramatic increase (877.78%), while Russia reported the highest Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR) in 2021 (10.10 per 100,000). Global mortality rates increased by 108.22%, led by the United Arab Emirates (700% growth), with Russia exhibiting the highest Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in 2021 (4.07 per 100,000). Furthermore, APC analysis identified critical drivers: the age effect peaked in the older populations (e.g., Russia’s mortality rate reached 42.8 per 100,000 at age 92.5); the period effect showed a surge in risk after 2000 in most nations (Saudi Arabia’s period Rate Ratio [RR]: 1.52); the cohort effect indicated a 6.60-fold elevated risk for China’s 2002 birth cohort compared to the 1952 baseline, contrasting with declining risks in younger Russian cohorts (RR: 0.66). Regional disparities highlighted interactions between economic transitions and health inequities. Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s burden was associated with metabolic disorders, Russia’s decline aligned with tobacco control initiatives, and India’s rural underdiagnosis reflected critical healthcare gaps.DiscussionThe kidney cancer burden in BRICS countries demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, driven by mechanisms related to population aging, the prevalence of metabolic risk factors, and disparities in healthcare accessibility. The findings underscore the necessity of strengthening environmental governance, implementing metabolic health interventions, and optimizing healthcare resource allocation to advance health equity and achieve Sustainable Development Goals. These insights provide a scientific basis for developing cross-regional strategies for cancer control.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 27
  • 10.21037/tau.2020.02.23
Temporal trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and projections to 2030
  • Apr 1, 2020
  • Translational Andrology and Urology
  • Qiliang Cai + 19 more

BackgroundThis study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030.MethodsData of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0).ResultsGlobally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759–349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335–136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81–5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93–2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable.ConclusionsThe incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries.

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  • 10.1038/s41598-022-25485-8
Trends of kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 in European Union 15 + countries and World Health Organization regions
  • Dec 26, 2022
  • Scientific Reports
  • Chinmay Jani + 11 more

In recent decades, variability in the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer (KC) has been reported. This study aimed to compare trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of KC between the European Union (EU) 15 + countries and 6 World Health Organization (WHO) regions. The data of KC Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALYs were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. Joinpoint regression was employed to examine trends. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR increased in most countries except for Luxembourg (males), the USA (females) and Austria and Sweden (both sexes). ASIR increased across all 6 WHO regions for both sexes except for females in Americas. The ASMR increased in 10/19 countries for males and 9/19 for females as well across most WHO regions. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) decreased in all countries and WHO regions. Trends in DALYs were variable across countries and WHO regions. While the incidence and mortality from KC rose in most EU15 + countries and WHO regions from 1990 to 2019, the universal drop in MIR suggests an overall improvement in KC outcomes. This is likely multifactorial, including earlier detection of KC and improved treatments.

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  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1200/jco.2022.40.6_suppl.393
Trends of kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 in European Union 15+ countries.
  • Feb 20, 2022
  • Journal of Clinical Oncology
  • Nour Abdallah + 10 more

393 Background: Kidney cancer is among the most common cancers worldwide and is increasing in incidence. During 2020, around 400,000 new cases of kidney cancer were reported, with 180,000 estimated deaths. In recent decades, significant variability in the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer has been universally reported. This study aimed to compare geographical trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years from kidney cancer between European Union (EU) 15+ countries from 1990 to 2019. Methods: The mortality data of kidney cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Versions 10 and 9 of the International Classification of Diseases were adopted. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected, per year and per country of the EU15+ group. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR) were calculated. Data was then dichotomized into males and females. Joinpoint regression was done for analysis of trends. Results: From 1990 to 2019, ASIRs increased in most of the countries except for Luxembourg for males, the United States of America (USA) for females, and Austria and Sweden for both sexes. The largest rises of ASIRs were in Denmark for males and females (+89.3% and +82.8%, respectively). ASDRs increased in 10/19 countries for males and 9/19 in females, with the highest rise in Denmark for males and females (+41.7% and +37.7% respectively), and the largest drop in Austria for males and females (-33.8% and -35.8% respectively). MIRs decreased in all countries, for both sexes, with the widest declines in Portugal for males (-29.0%) and in Ireland for females (-26.6%). Trends in DALYs were variable, with the highest rise in Denmark for males and females (+38.6% and +30.2% respectively) and the largest drop in Austria for males and females (-39.5% and -41.2%, respectively). In 2019, the highest ASIR was observed in the USA for males (16.7/100,000) and in Finland for females (8.3/100,000), the highest ASDR in the Netherlands for males (6.1/100,000) and Finland for females (3.0/100,000), highest MIR in Sweden for both genders (0.6/100,000 each), and highest DALYs in the Netherlands for males (132.3/100,000) and in Finland for females (62.6/100,000). Conclusions: The incidence and mortality from kidney cancer rose in most EU15+ countries from 1990 to 2019. Interestingly, an improvement in the outcomes is predicted by the drop in MIR in all countries.[Table: see text]

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  • Cite Count Icon 83
  • 10.1016/j.euf.2020.12.020
A Global Trend Analysis of Kidney Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Their Associations with Smoking, Alcohol Consumption, and Metabolic Syndrome
  • Jan 23, 2021
  • European Urology Focus
  • Junjie Huang + 15 more

A Global Trend Analysis of Kidney Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Their Associations with Smoking, Alcohol Consumption, and Metabolic Syndrome

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  • Cite Count Icon 15
  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.10.011
Estimation on the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer in China, in 2014
  • Oct 10, 2018
  • Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi
  • Q Chen + 9 more

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer in China in 2014, based on the cancer registration data. Data was collected through the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR). Methods: All together, 449 cancer registries submitted required data on incidence and deaths of kidney cancer occurred in 2014, to the NCCR. After evaluation on the quality of data,339 registries were accepted for analysis and stratified by areas (urban/rural) and age groups. Combined with data from the National population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of kidney cancer were estimated. Data from the 2000 National census was used, and with Segi's population used for the rates of age-standardized incidence/mortality. Results: The qualified 339 cancer registries covered a total population of 288 243 347, with 144 061 915 in urban and 144 181 432 in rural areas. The percentage of morphologically verified cases and cases with only available death certificates were 72.70% and 1.27%, respectively. The mortality to incidence ratio was 0.37. The estimates of new cases were around 68 300 in whole China, in 2014, with a crude incidence rate as 4.99/100 000 (95%CI: 4.95/100 000-5.03/100 000). The age-standardized incidence rates of kidney cancer, estimated by China standard population (ASR China) and world standard population (ASR world) were 3.43/100 000 (95%CI: 3.40/100 000-3.46/100 000) and 3.40/100 000 (95%CI: 3.37/100 000- 3.43/100 000), respectively. The cumulative incidence rate of kidney cancer was 0.40% in China. The crude and ASR China incidence rates for males appeared as 6.09/100 000 (6.03/100 000-6.15/100 000) and 4.32/100 000 (4.28/100 000-4.36/100 000), respectively, whereas those were 3.84/100 000 (3.79/100 000-3.89/100 000) and 2.54/100 000 (2.50/100 000-2.58/100 000) for females. The crude and ASR China incidence rates in urban areas appeared as 6.60/100 000 (95%CI: 6.54/100 000-6.66/100 000) and 4.25/100 000 (95%CI: 4.21/100 000-4.29/100 000), respectively, whereas those were 3.05/100 000 (95%CI: 3.01/100 000-3.09/100 000) and 2.29/100 000 (95%CI: 2.25/100 000-2.33/100 000) in rural areas. The estimates of kidney cancer deaths were around 25 600 in the country, in 2014, with a crude mortality rate of 1.87/100 000 (95%CI: 1.85/100 000-1.89/100 000). The ASR China and ASR world mortality rates appeared as 1.16/100 000 (95%CI: 1.14/100 000-1.18/100 000) and 1.16/100 000(95%CI: 1.14/100 000-1.18/100 000), respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate (0-74 years old) of 0.12%. The crude and ASR China mortality rates were 2.31/100 000 (95%CI: 2.27/100 000- 2.35/100 000) and 1.52/100 000 (95%CI: 1.50/100 000-1.54/100 000) for males, respectively, whereas those were 1.41/100 000 (95%CI: 1.38/100 000-1.44/100 000) and 0.81/100 000 (95%CI: 0.79/100 000- 0.83/100 000) for females. The crude and ASR China mortality rates were 2.49/100 000 (95%CI: 2.45/100 000-2.53/100 000) and 1.42/100 000 (95%CI: 1.40/100 000-1.44/100 000) in urban areas, respectively, whereas those were 1.12/100 000 (95%CI: 1.09/100 000-1.15/100 000) and 0.78/100 000 (95%CI: 0.76/100 000-0.80/100 000) in the rural areas. Conclusions: Both the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer seemed low, in China. However, the incidence of kidney cancer had greatly increased. Our findings suggested that prevention and control strategies for kidney cancer should be focused on males in the urban areas.

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  • Cite Count Icon 54
  • 10.1111/bju.13875
Association of Human Development Index with global bladder, kidney, prostate and testis cancer incidence and mortality.
  • May 8, 2017
  • BJU International
  • Alyssa K Greiman + 2 more

To describe contemporary worldwide age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for bladder, kidney, prostate and testis cancer and their association with development. We obtained gender-specific, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for 184 countries and 16 major world regions from the GLOBOCAN 2012 database. We compared the mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) at national and regional levels in males and females, and assessed the association with socio-economic development using the 2014 United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Age-standardized incidence rates were 2.9 (bladder) to 7.4 (testis) times higher for genitourinary malignancies in more developed countries compared with less developed countries. Age-standardized mortality rates were 1.5-2.2 times higher in more vs less developed countries for prostate, bladder and kidney cancer, with no variation in mortality rates observed in testis cancer. There was a strong inverse relationship between HDI and MIR in testis (regression coefficient 1.65, R2 = 0.78), prostate (regression coefficient -1.56, R2 = 0.85), kidney (regression coefficient -1.34, R2 = 0.74), and bladder cancer (regression coefficient -1.01, R2 = 0.80). While incidence and mortality rates for genitourinary cancers vary widely throughout the world, the MIR is highest in less developed countries for all four major genitourinary malignancies. Further research is needed to understand whether differences in comorbidities, exposures, time to diagnosis, access to healthcare, diagnostic techniques or treatment options explain the observed inequalities in genitourinary cancer outcomes.

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  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1200/jco.2025.43.5_suppl.521
Global and regional burden of kidney cancer: Analysis and future predictions based on GBD data from 1990 to 2021.
  • Feb 10, 2025
  • Journal of Clinical Oncology
  • Haochen Zhao + 1 more

521 Background: Kidney cancer, as a common urological malignancy with poor prognosis, shows significant variations in incidence and mortality rates in different countries and regions worldwide. This study aims to investigate the global burden and trends of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2021, and to analyze its associations with various factors. Methods: First, data on the number of kidney cancer cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 were collected and analyzed globally. Subgroup analyses based on sex, country, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) were then performed to examine the current status and time trends from 1990 to 2021 of kidney cancer in the total population and various subgroups. In addition, the age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) models were used to track dynamic changes in disease burden and predict future trends of the above indicators. Finally, risk factors and trend changes related to kidney cancer mortality within SDI subgroups were analyzed. Results: Globally, the incidence of kidney cancer increased sharply from 1.6×10 5 in 1990 to 3.9×10 5 in 2021. The ASRs for all measures of kidney cancer burden were higher for men than for women. China has the highest number of cases, deaths and DALYs in 2021, followed by the United States. The country of Cabo Verde and the region of Western Europe have the fastest growing ASRs for both incidence and mortality. 49 countries or regions, mainly in Western Europe and North America, have a decreasing trend in ASR for mortality over the period. Overall, the burden of kidney cancer increased with higher SDIs, with countries with middle and low-middle SDIs having the fastest growing burden of kidney cancer, such as North Africa and the Middle East. The APC and BAPC models predicted a steady decline in the ASRs of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs for kidney cancer over the next 20 years, although the APC model predicted a continued steady increase in the absolute numbers of these indicators. In addition, high BMI and smoking were identified as the major risk factors contributing to kidney cancer deaths. High body mass index was particularly pronounced in countries with low SDIs. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of kidney cancer has declined from historical peaks in developed countries, but remains on an upward trend in developing countries and represents a significant health threat. Revealing some previously unreported findings, the formulation of appropriate policies to reduce population exposure to risk factors associated with kidney cancer could be beneficial in the context of global aging trends.

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  • Cite Count Icon 4
  • 10.1038/s41598-024-64521-7
Kidney cancer in the Middle East and North Africa region: a 30-year analysis (1990–2019)
  • Jun 14, 2024
  • Scientific Reports
  • Saeid Safiri + 10 more

Kidney cancer, a type of urogenital cancer, imposes a high burden on patients. Despite this, no recent research has evaluated the burden of this type of cancer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study explored the burden of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2019 according to age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data was utilized to estimate the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by kidney cancer. These estimates were reported as counts and as age-standardised rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The estimated age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of kidney cancer in 2019 were 3.2 (2.8–3.6), 1.4 (1.2–1.6), and 37.2 (32.0–42.6) per 100,000, respectively. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, these rates have increased by 98.0%, 48.9%, and 37.7%, respectively. In 2019, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon had the largest age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. The smallest age-standardised incidence rates were seen in Yemen, Afghanistan, and the Syrian Arab Republic. Additionally, the smallest age-standardised mortality and DALY rates were observed in the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, and Morocco. The highest incidence rates were found among individuals aged 75–79 in both males and females. In 2019, the MENA/Global DALY ratio exceeded one for females aged 5–19 age and males aged 5–14, compared to 1990age groups in males. The burden of kidney cancer consistently rose with increasing SDI levels from 1990 to 2019. The increasing burden of kidney cancer highlights the urgent need for interventions aimed at improving early diagnosis and treatment in the region.

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  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.1155/2022/2689386
Kidney Cancer Incidence and Mortality Disparities Involving American Indians/Alaska Natives: An Analysis of the Oklahoma Central Cancer Registry (OCCR)
  • Jun 19, 2022
  • Journal of Cancer Epidemiology
  • Victoria Gonzalez + 7 more

Purpose This cohort study describes the differences in kidney cancer age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates between American Indians/Alaskan Natives (AI/ANs) and Whites in Oklahoma. Additionally, rates for the U.S. are updated to establish an epidemiological comparison between Oklahoma and the rest of the country. Materials and Methods Kidney cancer age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for Oklahoma were gathered using the Oklahoma Central Cancer Registry since 1999. National rates were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database between 1997 and 2017. Rate ratios were used to compare incidence and mortality rates for AI/ANs and Whites within Oklahoma as well as the entire country. Joinpoint regression models were created to illustrate trends in kidney cancer incidence and mortality. Results The age-adjusted incidence rate of kidney cancer in Oklahoma for AI/ANs and Whites was 32.3 and 15.8 per 100,000, respectively, for an incidence rate ratio of 2.04. The national incidence rate ratio was 0.89. The age-adjusted mortality rate in Oklahoma for AI/ANs and Whites was 9.78 and 4.98 per 100,000, respectively, for a mortality rate ratio of 1.98. Oklahomans, irrespective of race, fare worse in terms of kidney cancer mortality compared to the rest of the country. Conclusions In Oklahoma, AI/ANs are more likely than Whites to have a kidney cancer diagnosis. AI/ANs are twice as likely to die from kidney cancer than Whites in Oklahoma. AI/AN populations in certain states may benefit from kidney cancer early screening initiatives.

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  • Cite Count Icon 136
  • 10.1186/s40364-020-00195-3
Trends and projections of kidney cancer incidence at the global and national levels, 1990\u20132030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study
  • May 13, 2020
  • Biomarker Research
  • Zhebin Du + 4 more

BackgroundIdentifying the temporal trends of kidney cancer (KC) incidence in both the past and the future at the global and national levels is critical for KC prevention.MethodsWe retrieved annual KC case data between 1990 and 2017 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the temporal trends of KC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2017. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict KC incidence through 2030.ResultsWorldwide, the number of newly diagnosed KC cases increased from 207.3 thousand in 1990 to 393.0 thousand in 2017. The KC ASR increased from 4.72 per 100,000 to 4.94 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2018 and 2030, the number of KC cases is projected to increase further to 475.4 thousand (95% highest density interval [HDI] 423.9, 526.9). The KC ASR is predicted to decrease slightly to 4.46 per 100,000 (95% HDI 4.06, 4.86). A total of 90, 2, and 80 countries or territories are projected to experience increases, remain stable, and experience decreases in KC ASR between 2018 and 2030, respectively. In most developed countries, the KC incidence is forecasted to decrease irrespective of past trends. In most developing countries, the KC incidence is predicted to increase persistently through 2030.ConclusionsKC incidence is predicted to decrease in the next decade, and this predicted decrease is mainly driven by the decreases in developed countries. More attention should be placed on developing countries.

  • Research Article
  • 10.21037/tau-2024-750
Rising incidence and clinical impact of kidney cancer in China and worldwide: a call for targeted prevention, early diagnosis, and equitable treatment.
  • May 1, 2025
  • Translational andrology and urology
  • Canxuan Li + 3 more

Kidney cancer is an increasing global public health challenge, with its incidence rising due to aging populations, lifestyle transitions, and advances in diagnostic technologies. However, this growth is unevenly distributed across regions, driven by disparities in healthcare access, socioeconomic conditions, and lifestyle factors. In China, kidney cancer incidence and mortality have escalated significantly, fueled by an aging population, urbanization, and higher prevalence of risk factors such as smoking and hypertension. Rural areas face disproportionately late-stage diagnoses due to healthcare inequities. Globally, notable gender differences persist, as men consistently exhibit higher rates of both incidence and mortality in comparison to women. This study aimed to analyze kidney cancer trends and risk factor contributions in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 to inform targeted public health strategies. This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to explore trends in kidney cancer between 1990 and 2021. Critical indicators, including age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were examined using Joinpoint regression to uncover temporal patterns and demographic distinctions. Data stratification by age, gender, and region was performed, with advanced modeling approaches such as Disease Modeling-Meta-Regression (DisMod-MR) and Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) employed to standardize outcomes and mitigate reporting inconsistencies. From 1990 to 2021, kidney cancer in China exhibited substantial increases in incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) grew from 1.794 to 3.319 per 100,000, while the prevalence rate rose from 7.191 to 17.754 per 100,000. Mortality rates experienced a moderate rise, with the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increasing from 1.14 to 1.246 per 100,000. Although DALYs rose significantly, the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) displayed a marginal decline, dropping from 35.838 to 34.176 per 100,000. In China, contributions of smoking and high body mass index (BMI) to kidney cancer mortality and DALYs increased, while occupational exposure to trichloroethylene remained stable; globally, high BMI rose to become the leading risk factor, surpassing smoking, which declined. On a global scale, incidence and prevalence of kidney cancer steadily climbed, while mortality and DALY rates exhibited slight decreases, attributable to improvements in early diagnosis and treatment strategies. Gender disparities persisted, with men consistently showing higher rates across all metrics compared to women. Over 30 years, kidney cancer burden has risen sharply with regional, demographic, and gender disparities. China needs to reduce urban-rural gaps and improve early diagnosis. Globally, limited care access persists in low-income areas. Rising high BMI calls for metabolic interventions. Public health must ensure equitable care and targeted prevention to combat this burden.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1186/s12889-025-22688-2
Time trends in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality across the BRICS from 1992 to 2021 and projection to 2046
  • May 13, 2025
  • BMC Public Health
  • Heng Zhang + 6 more

ObjectiveThis study evaluates the long-term trends in Multiple Myeloma (MM) incidence, mortality, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects in the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).MethodsData on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) trends from 1992 to 2021, and the Age-Period-Cohort model evaluated nonlinear impacts of age, period, and cohort effects. Projections to 2046 were calculated using Bayesian APC modeling.ResultsFrom 1992 to 2021, MM incidence and death cases in the BRICS nations increased nearly four to fivefold, with ASIR and ASMR nearly doubling. China and India had lower ASIR and ASMR than other BRICS countries despite accounting for over half of cases and deaths. South Africa consistently had the highest ASIR and ASMR in both 1992 and 2021. China experienced a significant increase in ASIR (AAPC 4.92%, p < 0.001) and ASMR (AAPC 4.07%, p < 0.001) over the past three decades. MM incidence and mortality increased with aging, and the age effect on MM was more pronounced among individuals aged greater than 40 years. Birth cohorts’ impact on MM varied greatly between BRICS, with China suffering the largest risk increase among those born after the 1970s. Projections indicate ASIR and ASMR will reach 2.44 and 1.82 per 100,000 by 2046, continuing to rise across the BRICS nations.ConclusionsMM burden is rapidly increasing in the BRICS, closely tied to population aging. Targeted strategies addressing each country’s unique challenges are essential as the burden continues to grow.

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  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.6001/actamedica.v25i3.3862
Trends in the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer in Lithuania from 1993 to 2012
  • Jan 1, 2018
  • Acta Medica Lituanica
  • Aušvydas Patašius + 3 more

Background.The aim of this paper is to analyse trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality in Lithuania during the period of 1993 to 2012 using joinpoint regression models with special attention to changes in the distribution of stages.Materials and methods.The study was based on all cases of kidney cancer reported to the Lithuanian Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2012. Age group-specific rates and standardized rates were calculated for each sex, using the direct method (world standard population). The joinpoint regression model was used to provide the estimated annual percentage change and to detect points in time where significant changes in the trends occur.Results.During the study period the age-standardized incidence rates increased from 16.89/100,000 in 1993 to 27.77/100,000 in 2012 in males, and from 7.95/100,000 to 13.44/100,000 in females. During this period, annual percentage changes in the age-standardized rates were 2.33% and 1.81% for males and females, respectively. The joinpoint analysis by stage of disease showed the highest increase in stage I kidney cancer, with statistically significant trend change in 2002 for males and in 2001 for females. During the study period, age-standardized mortality rates decreased from 10.42/100,000 in 1993 to 8.96/100,000 in 2012 in males, and from 4.54/100,000 to 3.9/100,000 in females.Conclusions.The kidney cancer incidence rate in Lithuania rose during the period of 1993 to 2012. The detailed analysis by stage showed the most significant increase in organ-confined incidence of kidney cancer. A stable mortality trend for males and a decreasing mortality trend for females along with increased incidence of early stage kidney cancer indicate that both earlier detection and modern treatment modalities may contribute to the reduction of mortality.

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  • Cite Count Icon 42
  • 10.2188/jea.je20150257
Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975-2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan.
  • Jan 1, 2016
  • Journal of Epidemiology
  • Fukuaki Lee Kinoshita + 2 more

BackgroundMonitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan.MethodsCancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4%) for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3%) for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7%) for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3%) for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) and small cell carcinoma (SMC) significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC) significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders.ConclusionsThe incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

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  • Cite Count Icon 37
  • 10.2105/ajph.2013.301616
Kidney cancer incidence and mortality among American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States, 1990-2009.
  • Apr 22, 2014
  • American Journal of Public Health
  • Jun Li + 5 more

We describe rates and trends in kidney cancer incidence and mortality and identify disparities between American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) and White populations. To improve identification of AI/AN race, incidence and mortality data were linked with Indian Health Service (IHS) patient records. Analysis focused on residents of IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties; Hispanics were excluded. We calculated age-adjusted kidney cancer incidence (2001-2009) and death rates (1990-2009) by sex, age, and IHS region. AI/AN persons have a 1.6 times higher kidney cancer incidence and a 1.9 times higher kidney cancer death rate than Whites. Despite a significant decline in kidney cancer death rates for Whites (annual percentage change [APC] = -0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.5, 0.0), death rates for AI/AN persons remained stable (APC = 0.4; 95% CI = -0.7, 1.5). Kidney cancer incidence rates rose more rapidly for AI/AN persons (APC = 3.5; 95% CI = 1.2, 5.8) than for Whites (APC = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.4, 2.8). AI/AN individuals have greater risk of developing and dying of kidney cancers. Incidence rates have increased faster in AI/AN populations than in Whites. Death rates have decreased slightly in Whites but remained stable in AI/AN populations. Racial disparities in kidney cancer are widening.

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