Abstract
The paper examines the association between variouscrime series for South Africa and their economicdeterminants between 1960 and 1993. The study usesJohansen cointegration techniques to establish theimportance of income per capita (economicopportunities), police officers per capita, convictionrates (both of which proxy for the likelihood ofcriminal success whilst the latter also captures aninstitutional efficiency aspect), and politicalinstability (necessary to reflect the unique SouthAfrican environment during this time) on per capitacrime levels. The results caution previous studiesthat find a close relationship between the level ofeconomic activity and recorded crime. Previous workhas relied on the Engle-Granger technique assuming aunique cointegrating vector. Our results for SouthAfrica indicate that whilst total offences arenegatively associated with income per capita,disaggregated crime series do not always yieldcointegrating vectors. Some conclusions on the policyimplications also follow.
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