Temperature outweighs light and flow as the predominant driver of dissolved oxygen in US rivers

Abstract

The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), an important measure of water quality and river metabolism, varies tremendously in time and space. Riverine DO is commonly perceived as regulated by interacting and competing drivers (light, temperature and flow) that define rivers’ climate. Its continental-scale drivers, however, have remained elusive, partly due to the scarcity and spatio-temporal inconsistency of water quality data. Here we show, via a deep learning model (long short-term memory) trained using data from 580 rivers, that temperature predominantly drives daily DO dynamics in the contiguous United States. Light comes a close second, whereas flow imparts minimal influence. This work showcases the promise of using deep learning models for data filling that enables large-scale systematic analysis of patterns and drivers. Results show fairly accurate prediction of DO by temperature alone, and declining DO in warming rivers, which has important implications for water security and ecosystem health in the future climate. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen are considered as comparably driven by light, temperature and flow regimes in individual rivers, although their continental-scale drivers remain elusive due to data scarcity. Results from data and a long short-term memory deep learning model suggests that temperature is the most predominant driver of daily DO in US rivers.