Temperature effects on egg development of the rosy apple aphid and forecasting of egg hatch

Abstract

AbstractThe development of Dysaphis plantaginea (Pass.) (Homoptera: Aphididae) winter eggs was studied at six different constant temperatures ranging from 7.5 to 16.5 °C in order to improve the basis for phenological forecasts in early spring. The mortality was generally low at temperatures below 13.5 °C but increased considerably at 16.5 °C. The effect of temperature on development rates could be described with linear regression within the temperature range under study. The lower temperature threshold for development was estimated to be 4.0 °C and the thermal constant 140 day‐degrees. A time‐varying distributed delay approach was used to establish a temperature driven phenology model for winter egg hatch of D. plantaginea considering the intrinsic variability in development time. The model parameters such as temperature‐dependent development times and corresponding variances were quantified based on the experimental data. When compared with independent observations on egg hatch under semifield conditions, the model gave satisfactory validation results. It can be used as forecasting tool for the optimal timing of monitoring and control measures for D. plantaginea in early spring.