Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases,+

Abstract

Abstract Changes in extreme temperatures, heat waves, and heavy rainfall events have adverse effects on human health, air quality, and water resources. With aerosol-only (AER) and greenhouse gas–only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry–climate model, aerosol-induced versus greenhouse gas–induced changes in temperature (summer) and precipitation (all seasons) extremes over the United States are investigated. Small changes in these extremes in the all forcing simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the United States. The strongest response occurs in the western United States (−2.0°C and −14 days, regionally averaged) and the weakest response occurs in the southeastern United States (−0.6°C and −4.8 days). An opposite-signed response pattern occurs in GHG (+2.3°C and +11.5 days over the western United States and +1.6°C and +7.2 days over the southeastern United States). The similar spatial response patterns in AER versus GHG suggest a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern United States decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central United States in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate.