Technological Knowledge Flow Forecasting through A Hierarchical Interactive Graph Neural Network

Abstract

With the accelerated technology development, technological trend forecasting through patent mining has become a hot issue for high-tech companies. In this term, extensive attention has been attracted to forecasting technological knowledge flows (TKF), i.e., predicting the directional flows of knowledge from one technological field to another. However, existing studies either rely on labor intensive empirical analysis or do not consider the intrinsic characteristics inherent in TKF, including the double-faced aspects (i.e., act as both the source and target) of technology nodes, multiple complex relationships among different technologies, and dynamics of the TKF process. To this end, in this paper, we make a further study and propose a data-driven solution, i.e., a Hierarchical Interactive Graph Neural Network (HighTKF), to automatically find the potential flow trends of technologies. Specifically, HighTKF makes final predictions through two kinds of representations of each technology node (a diffusion vector and an absorption vector), which is realized by three components: High-Order Interaction Module (HOI), Hierarchical Delivery Module (HD) and Technology Flow Tracing Module (TFT). For one thing, HOI and HD aim to model high-order network relationships and hierarchical relationships among technologies. For another, TFT is designed for capturing the dynamic feature evolution of technologies with the above relations involved. Also, we design a hybrid loss function and propose a new evaluation metric for better predicting the unprecedented flows between technologies. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on a real-world patent dataset, the results verify the effectiveness of our approach and reveal some interesting phenomenons on technological knowledge flow trends.