Techniques for ascertaining the validity of large-scale production simulation models

Abstract

Statistical method, and in particular, simulation is the most widely used operations research modelling approach now employed by industry and government. Validation of a simulation model is the procedure designed to determine whether the model is an accurate representation of the portion of reality under consideration. It is a process distinct from model building or debugging (although interrelated). In this work, strategies and practical numerical techniques for validating large-scale production simulation models (or any other large system) are detailed. An evolution of the central concepts of large-scale model validation is represented first. The distinction between model user's risk and model builder's risk is highlighted as an important development which alters the problem into a consideration of the basis a decision-maker should use in determining whether to rely on the outputs of such models. Two quantitative techniques which are applications of the Turing test and of mathematical programming are de...