États-Unis : une croissance hypothéquée

Abstract

With the easing of monetary policy from summer 1982 onwards, the American economy bounced back to its pre-recession level and has been growing vigorously for the past year. Investment, largely self-financed owing to tax deductions, has reached a higher level than during the cyclical recoveries which started in 1961 and 1975. After the rationalization of existing structures, it can now be turned towards increasing capacity in dynamic sectors. Employment has reached and now overtaken its previous peak. However, compared with the same two cycles, the relative increase in the services sector, which has tended to grow in importance, is lower and the rise in productivity is more marked in manufacturing industry where the return to previous employment levels has been put back. Inflationary pressures have been slight during the recovery phase thanks to moderate wage increases, cheap imports and lower taxes. These effects are falling off and would be reversed if slacker monetary policy were to prolong a strong expansion. The cyclical lead over countries, the structural difficulties of Latin America and an over valued dollar have weighed on the foreign deficit. The surplus in services remains high but that of investment goods has fallen considerably. The budget deficit, a veritable mortgage on future growth, is far from being resolved. Receipts are only marginally increasing as business conditions improve and decision making is delayed by the forth-coming elections. Under these conditions and with targets for the money supply which seem hardly attainable, the response of the monetary authorities to fluctuations of the dollar, to the private sector demand for credit and to the public sector borrowing requirement will be crucial. Leaving aside extreme solutions, the slowdown in activity could well be jolted by fragmented policy making. Appendices : forecast results and basic charts.