Abstract
Meeting the 1.5 °C goal will require a rapid scale-up of zero-carbon energy supply, fuel switching to electricity, efficiency and demand-reduction in all sectors, and the replenishment of natural carbon sinks. These transformations will have immediate impacts on various of the sustainable development goals. As goals such as affordable and clean energy and zero hunger are more immediate to great parts of global population, these impacts are central for societal acceptability of climate policies. Yet, little is known about how the achievement of other social and environmental sustainability objectives can be directly managed through emission reduction policies. In addition, the integrated assessment literature has so far emphasized a single, global (cost-minimizing) carbon price as the optimal mechanism to achieve emissions reductions. In this paper we introduce a broader suite of policies—including direct sector-level regulation, early mitigation action, and lifestyle changes—into the integrated energy-economy-land-use modeling system REMIND-MAgPIE. We examine their impact on non-climate sustainability issues when mean warming is to be kept well below 2 °C or 1.5 °C. We find that a combination of these policies can alleviate air pollution, water extraction, uranium extraction, food and energy price hikes, and dependence on negative emissions technologies, thus resulting in substantially reduced sustainability risks associated with mitigating climate change. Importantly, we find that these targeted policies can more than compensate for most sustainability risks of increasing climate ambition from 2 °C to 1.5 °C.
Highlights
Climate change and sustainable development have a long history in international diplomacy, and recent developments have attempted to merge the two agendas into a common discourse
Little is known about how the achievement of other social and environmental sustainability objectives can be directly managed through emission reduction policies
We find that a combination of these policies can alleviate air pollution, water extraction, uranium extraction, food and energy price hikes, and dependence on negative emissions technologies, resulting in substantially reduced sustainability risks associated with mitigating climate change
Summary
Climate change and sustainable development have a long history in international diplomacy, and recent developments have attempted to merge the two agendas into a common discourse. At the heart of this common discourse is a growing appreciation that both agendas directly depend on the success of the other (Stechow et al 2016). Sustainable development cannot be achieved unless the most severe, pervasive and potentially irreversible climate impacts of business-as-usual development to people and natural systems can be avoided—requiring limiting warming to well below 2 ◦C or possibly even 1.5 ◦C (Edenhofer et al 2014, IPCC 2014a). The means by which such emissions reductions would be achieved are highly consequential for future human development. A large-scale dependence on bioenergy and negative emissions deployments could threaten longterm food security and biodiversity objectives (Creutzig et al 2015, Fuss et al 2018, Minx et al 2018)
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