Synergistic use of debris environment models for flexible, very-long term projections

Abstract

Long-term debris environment projections are of great importance for assessing the necessity and effectiveness of debris mitigation measures. Two types of models have been developed to predict these environments. Environment evolution models like the EVOLVE code are using detailed mission model data to input spacecraft, upper stages, and operational debris into specific orbits at specific times; debris from fragmentations are placed in orbits defined by the state vector of the fragmenting object(s) and the breakup model. The second type, typified by the CHAIN program, uses a particle-in-box model that bins the environment in size and altitude rather than following the orbit evolution of individual debris fragments. A 3-Step approach using both the EVOLVE and CHAIN model in a synergistic way was used to increase the reliability of long term environment projections. EVOLVE historical projections 1957–1995 could be validated by comparison to measurements. The comparison of 100 year projection runs of EVOLVE and CHAIN for different traffic scenarios showed a good agreement. In this paper, for the first time, CHAIN projections up to 10,000 years, based on validated boundary conditions derived by EVOLVE are presented, indicating clearly the need of early implementation of effective mitigation measures to prevent exponential population growth by collisional cascading effects.