Abstract
Sweden experienced a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021–22 but is potentially heading into a recession. Global headwinds started to steadily put breaks on consumption and business confidence in the third quarter of 2022, as external demand weakened, and higher inflation and interest rates are increasing the burden on households and firms. A slightly negative GDP growth and a moderate decline in inflation are expected in 2023. The recovery will be gradual over the medium term, and inflation is expected to decelerate towards its 2 percent target, but the uncertainty surrounding this outlook is high.
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