Sustainable livelihood capital and climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agriculture: Structural equation modeling analysis in the VIABLE framework

Abstract

This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers’ adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = −0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.