Abstract
This study assesses economic, legal, and environmental conditions that Thai rubber farmers face, and evaluates actions they can take to increase incomes. Statistical analyses determine relationships between prices of oil, natural and synthetic rubber. Pearson correlation tests found a strong positive relationship (r = 0.887) between the price of Brent crude and Thai ribbed smoked sheets, and a moderate positive relationship between price changes in Brent and synthetic rubber (r = 0.648). Regression analysis showed Brent oil price is a good predictor of natural rubber prices. Moderate to strong positive relationships were also found between natural rubber price and gross domestic product of Japan, China, and the United States. Criminal antitrust behavior in rubber industries appeared to interfere with normal pricing in rubber markets. No significant bivariate correlation was found between rainfall in Thailand and natural rubber price, production, or export although flooding and other environmental issues clearly affected rubber farms. A survey of options showed Thai rubber farmers can improve livelihoods best through collective purchase and use of new technologies, and by integrating into downstream supply chain industries. At very least, farmers are urged to abandon monocrop methods and supplement incomes with fruit, fish, livestock, or pigs. stment budget, 2) architectural Aesthetic, and 3) utilization. Additionally, background of the interviewees is one of reinforcing factors for decision on universal design investment.
Highlights
Background ResearchChawananon (2014) studied interrelationships between rubber production and price, rainfall, THB/USD exchange rate, rice price, rainfall, US vehicle sales, and GDP per capita in China, Japan, and the United States
Despite Synthetic rubber (SR)’s relative price inelasticity, we assume that the law of demand holds true and that as price rises, consumers will attempt to substitute products when they are available in order to minimize costs and maximize their profits as rubber passes down the supply chain
Upon examining a graphical representation of YoY price change for ribbed smoked sheets (RSS) and SR, we see local minima and maxima do not align; rather, they are nearly opposite each other. Even though both prices may be rising over time, one rises faster than the other, which creates a perfect opportunity for consumers to switch based on price
Summary
Chawananon (2014) studied interrelationships between rubber production and price, rainfall, THB/USD exchange rate, rice price, rainfall, US vehicle sales, and GDP per capita in China, Japan, and the United States. While rubber demand does not change significantly with price changes, rainfall can affect supply and, in turn, producer incomes. Farmers’ decisions to monocrop rubber or intercrop are influenced by market prices of alternative crops just as natural rubber consumers’ decisions are affected by the price of its main competitor: synthetic rubber. Vol 14, No 1 2018 petroleum product, synthetic rubber prices are impacted by oil prices. High oil prices result in higher SR prices, making NR a more viable option for consumers. Low oil prices make SR prices more competitive and NR demand suffers (Romprasert, 2009; Petchseechoung, 2016)
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