Survival prediction in terminally ill cancer patients by clinical estimates, laboratory and psychometric tests

Abstract

8578 Background: To improve general survival estimates in advanced cancer pat. we studied physicians’ clinical estimates, the impact of emotional disorders (anxiety and depression), and laboratory tests in palliative patients. Methods: From 12/03 to 7/04 patients with advanced cancer referred to radiation oncology for palliative treatment were invited to participate in this prospective cohort study. Pat. with adjuvant or curative treatment intent were not considered. The life span was independently estimated by two physicians and the institutional tumor board according to 3 categories (<1, 1–6, and >6 months). Agreement of survival predictions was analyzed with contingency tables and kappa statistics. Primary tumor, metastatic spread, performance status, pain, dyspnoea, weight loss, nausea, fatigue, serum enzymes (AP, LDH), function parameters (creatinine, bilirubin, CRP), and blood count (WBC, RBC) were also studied. Emotional disorders were measured using a validated psychometric self-assessment scale (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HADS). Life table analysis with log-rank test and stepwise Cox regression analysis with univariate significant variables were performed. Results: 216 pat. were enrolled and followed for at least 6 months. 580 prognoses were obtained. 94% (204) had complete blood tests. HADS questionnaires were completed by 71% (154). Survival was <1 mo in 15% (33), 1–6 mo in 36% (78), and >6 mo in 49% (105).Survival prediction was poor (kappa= 0.33) and consistently too optimistic (test of symmetry, p<0.0001). In life table analysis primary tumor (hazard ratio 2.0), brain metastases, performance status (HR 1.9), dyspnoea (HR 2.0), nausea (HR 2.0), LDH (HR 1.9), WBC (HR 2.1), fatigue, anxiety and depression (HADS) were highly significant (p< 0.0002). Conclusions: Physicians generally overestimated survival of advanced cancer patients emphasizing the need of objective prognostic models. Even short-term survival estimates (< 1 mo.) were unreliable. Combined objective variables may improve survival prediction. Psychometric tests are promising candidates to be incorporated in more accurate prognostic models. No significant financial relationships to disclose.