Survival of HIV-infected patients with compensated liver cirrhosis

Abstract

Since the advent of HAART, liver-related mortality has become the leading cause of non-AIDS deaths in HIV-infected patients in western countries, complications of end-stage liver disease due to chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C or both being mainly responsible. The incidence and predictors of mortality were examined in HIV-infected patients with compensated liver cirrhosis. The accuracy of three different methods (elastometry, Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores) to predict mortality was further examined. Cirrhosis was defined for hepatic elastometry values above 14.5 kPa. A total of 194 (11.4%) out of 1706 HIV-positive individuals were cirrhotic and were prospectively followed since October 2004 until December 2008. Overall, 89% of cirrhotic individuals had chronic hepatitis C, 10.3% chronic hepatitis B, 4.6% hepatitis delta and 4.1% liver disease of other causes or unknown cause. The overall mortality rate was 5.8 deaths per 100 patient-years. Multivariate analyses showed that age of at least 50 years (hazard ratio 4.76, 95% confidence interval 1.66-13.59, P = 0.004), CD4 cell counts below 200 cells/microl (hazard ratio 3.01, 95% confidence interval 1.26-7.23, P = 0.03) and detectable plasma HIV-RNA (hazard ratio 3.97, 95% CI, 1.53-10.27, P = 0.005) were associated with mortality. A baseline Model for End-stage Liver Disease score of at least 11 (P = 0.03) and hepatic elastometry values above 28.75 kPa (P = 0.001) were independent predictors of mortality. The death rate in HIV-infected patients with compensated liver cirrhosis in the HAART era is 5.8% yearly, higher than mortality previously reported for either HIV-uninfected individuals with cirrhosis or noncirrhotic HIV-positive patients. Factors associated with mortality were older age, low CD4 cell counts and detectable plasma HIV-RNA. Both Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and especially hepatic elastometry accurately predicted mortality in this population.