Abstract

We investigate empirically whether returns of stocks from one industry predict those of another. We analyze this question through a VAR process and find downstream predictability in the supply chain along with synergy predictability. We use a portfolio selection framework in order to analyze whether the predictability, in addition to being statistically significant, is also economically relevant. Here, we find significant out-of-sample excess returns, and a noteworthy increase in Sharpe ratio.

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