Abstract
An ever-present threat of a major new influenza pandemic of devastating proportions haunts us, and despite diligent monitoring of circulating viruses has been impossible to predict. On a more local scale outbreaks of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (EHF) in West Africa have posed a serious public health threat because of its high fatality risk. Research on the environmental factors underlying both EHF and influenza epidemiology may provide useful insights into the occurrence of future pandemic outbreaks. This study suggests that sunspot activity in extremum or ± one year was associated with influenza pandemics and severe EHF outbreaks in Africa from 1976 to 2014. Potential mechanisms by which sunspot activity may influence viral outbreaks are discussed. Current and future surveillance efforts should be supported to construct a comprehensive early warning system involving virus monitoring and epidemioilogy on the ground, sunspot activity as well as stratospheric sampling for forecasting future pandemics.
Highlights
Of the many types of global disasters that face humanity at the present time the threat of a major viral pandemic would appear to be among the most serious
Despite the huge strides of progress that have been made in regard to studies of influenza A and the immunization strategies that are in place, we are still unable to predict the emergence of new pandemic strains, forecast the onset of a pandemic or plan reliable steps to ameliorate its worst outcome
Association between influenza and sunspot activity We summarise influenza data that have already been discussed at length by Qu [9] elsewhere, and we refer the reader to this work for further details and citations
Summary
Of the many types of global disasters that face humanity at the present time the threat of a major viral pandemic would appear to be among the most serious. The emergence of pandemic strains, apparently requires radical genetic transformations or shifts involving a major re-assortment of viral genes, including recombination of preexisting influenza sub-types, and the possibility already discussed that new RNA segments may be inserted that have an origin external to Earth.
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