Studying and Analysis of crash severity for different Expressways on Al-Rusafa side for Baghdad city using Binary Logistic Regression Model

Abstract

Nowadays, in Iraq, especially Baghdad, many accidents are recorded daily, and the occurrence is different in terms of severity (fatal, injury, property damage only) with different seasons, days and even times, as a result of the anxiety and great concern that these accidents pose on the part of drivers of these highways. Therefore, this study has become necessary to find out the causes which have direct interference with the accident impact on these roads. On the other hand, many researchers in the field of traffic engineering in Iraq didn’t address the severity of accidents on highways. In addition, this study is the first to find out the main causes of accidents for the most important main and vital highways that are used on a daily basis by drivers on the Al- Rusafa side in Baghdad (Mohamed Al-Qasim Expressway, Army Canal expressway). Furthermore, the data utilized in this research consists of a sample size of (236) forms and it was collected from traffic officers for period 2006 to 2019. After analysis by using Logistic Regression Model, there are three variables closely linked to the severity of accidents on Mohamed Al-Qasim Expressway (cause of an accident like (wrong turn, loss of control, closing (safety distance), vehicle body type, speed). Also, and four variables on Army Canal Expressway (road condition, day, vehicle body type, speed) resulting from the Binary Logistic Regression model.