Abstract
The medium-term runoff forecasting provided new information for forecast of medium and long term runoff and optimal hydroelectric power generation. According to the actual runoff and hydropower generating characteristics of Ertan Hydropower Station, we studied the decade runoff quantitatively and grade forecast model based on Global Forecasting System (GFS) precipitation forecast information in wet season, then used the posteriori runoff transition probability and measurable probability of runoff forecast to research the uncertain runoff description based on runoff forecast; finally on the basis of the runoff description and the grading forecast accuracy of GFS-based next 10 days’ total forecast precipitation, we studied the uncertain optimal operating model of Ertan Hydropower Station considering runoff forecast. The results showed that the runoff forecast considering GFS forecast precipitation and uncertainty has significantly improved the existing runoff description and operating optimization model, and obviously raised the hydropower generation efficiency of Ertan Reservoir.
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