Study on land use changes, causes and impacts by remote sensing, GIS and Delphi methods in the coastal area of Ca Mau province in 30 years

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to assess the spatio-temporal changes of land cover/land use, as well as their causes and impacts of the changes in Phu Tan district of Ca Mau province in 30 years from 1989 to 2018. Multi-temporal remote sensing satellite images (Landsat) were collected, and classified using supervised method. After validation and post classification, they are mapped for analysing land use/land cover change analysis in three decades. The accuracies of the land cover/land use maps for three time intervals were all more than 80%. Delphi method consensus analysis of expert opinion was applied in 2 rounds of survey with the consultancy of eight experts. Overall, the results show that over the last 30 years, the areas of cultivated plants and water bodies significantly decreased. In contrast, aquaculture ponds, mangrove forest, and residential areas substantially increased. These changes are driven by polical, demographic, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The major impacts include water quality, bussiness and service, and natural ecosystem. The results of this study will contribute to providing a panoramic view of the design of economic, social and environmental policies to ensure sustainable development at the district level.