Abstract
From January 1, 2014, the basic stations of meteorological observation countries have changed from small evaporation observations to large-scale evaporation observations. National general weather stations have canceled observations on evaporation, but small evaporation is very important for forest fire risk prediction. In order to make the prediction of forest fire risk level objectively, weather data in Putian City, China and the multi-linear regression analysis method is used to calculate the daily evaporation amount in the more advanced SPSS16.0 software (English version), and the data of the last 5 years of each site are selected and fitted. Results showed that we accurately calculated the evaporation of the next day to make up for the lack of data due to the adjustment of the evaporation observation project. According to the forest fire risk weather index corresponding to many meteorological factors such as evaporation, temperature, humidity, sunshine and wind speed, the forest fire risk meteorological grade standard was designed to make a more accurate forest fire risk grade forecast.
Highlights
Forest fire insurance is closely related to many meteorological factors
In order to make the prediction of forest fire risk level objectively, weather data in Putian City, China and the multi-linear regression analysis method is used to calculate the daily evaporation amount in the more advanced SPSS16.0 software (English version), and the data of the last 5 years of each site are selected and fitted
The national general station has canceled the observation of the evaporation amount, but the daily evaporation amount is extremely important for the forest fire risk level prediction (Takle et al, 1994; Liu et al, 2002; Vacchiano et al, 2013)
Summary
Forest fire insurance is closely related to many meteorological factors. According to literature research (Millán et al, 1998; Holsten et al, 2013; Qu & Hu, 2008), meteorological elements that have a greater impact on forest fire risk grades have daily evaporation, daily maximum temperature, poor temperature, minimum daily (14 hours) relative humidity, and maximum daily. This paper intends to use the relevant meteorological factors to explore the weight relationship between daily evaporation and temperature, humidity, sunshine and wind speed to establish a linear equation for back calculating the daily evaporation, and through the daily evaporation, temperature, humidity, sunshine and The wind speed and other meteorological factors are fitted, and the day’s forest fire risk weather index is calculated, so that the day forest fire risk grade forecast is produced according to the judgment standard. Based on the evaporation algorithm and combining various meteorological elements or variables closely related to forest fire risk, this paper designs the forecast method of forest fire risk meteorological grades in all counties and districts of Putian City, and uses Microsoft Visual Basic (VB.net) as the main programming language to produce daily forecasting work modules. Editable word document (forest fire risk rating service products), in order to be timely sent to the party and government leading organs and forestry departments to maximize the prevention of forest fires
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