Student Perceptions and Commitment to Protecting Aquatic Invertebrates

![Figure][1] In August 2009, the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) held its 36th Congress in Kyoto in the same convention centre where the historic Kyoto Protocol was drawn up 12 years earlier. The symbolism of this coincidence was not missed by Malcolm Gordon, the Chair of

Critical shifts on spatial traits and the risk of extinction of Andean anurans: an assessment of the combined effects of climate and land-use change in Colombia

BackgroundAnthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.

Implications of climate change on freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity

Biodiversity loss due to changes in climate and land use has been assessed recently. The earliest biodiversity assessments already showed that species are declining faster than at any time in the past and that ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating. Moreover, these assessments indicated that the projected changes in climate and land use likely drive further biodiversity losses in the 21st century, both directly and in synergy with each other. This accumulated evidence positions climate change and land-use change among the major human-induced direct drivers of biodiversity loss. Climate change affects biodiversity as climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, largely determine the geographical distributions of species. Hence, in areas where climate is less suitable, species shift their geographical ranges and go extinct locally. Land-use change poses immediate threats to biodiversity as the conversion of natural habitats (e.g. forests, wetlands and grasslands) into agricultural land results in populations decline and extinctions become more likely. These adverse effects consequently change ecosystems functioning and potentially affect the supply of ecosystems services and thus human well-being. Although research on climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity and the consequent implications was repeatedly conducted, the range of estimates for these impacts remains disturbingly large. Moreover, such research relied on climate-change scenarios that depict relatively small increases in global mean temperatures (i.e. <2°C). Nowadays, the plausibility of climate-change scenarios which overshoot the 2°C policy target from The Paris Agreement, is rapidly increasing. Advances are thus needed to better understand how biodiversity will respond to such larger changes, including quantifications of the expected biodiversity decline at different climate and land-use change levels, and the effect derived from interaction mechanisms between these drivers. Furthermore, the global efforts to combat climate change and to keep global average temperature to well-below 2°C will require large mitigation commitments from the land sector with potentially both positive and negative consequences for biodiversity. These implications of land-based mitigation efforts have to be further assessed. My PhD thesis therefore aimed to explore future biodiversity trends under projected direct and synergistic changes in climate and land use and to advance understanding of climate-change mitigation consequences for biodiversity. In this thesis, climate change was indicated by global mean temperature increase (°C) and land-use change by land-use intensity levels (i.e. grazing and cropland levels) and land-cover type transitions. In Chapter 2, I assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by systematically reviewing studies and performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. I proposed two indicators to quantify the local response of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change: the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable habitat for each species. The FRS and FRA calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and both they indicate biodiversity intactness. The biodiversity response was quantified for different intervals of global mean temperature increase and for different taxonomic groups and ecosystems. The results showed that projected climate-change impacts likely cause changes to the distribution of many plants and animals and this leads to severe range contractions and local extinction of some species (i.e. decreasing biodiversity). The FRS and FRA were projected to gradually decrease with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1°C and 2°C increases in global mean temperature, and 32% and 54% beyond 4°C increase. This chapter showed that already at moderate temperature increases the original biodiversity significant decreased. In Chapter 3, I estimated biodiversity decline from changes in climate and land use in grassland ecosystems, which are among the most extensive ecosystems in the world. The analysis was conducted in the Central Asian grasslands, which are nowadays transforming by changes in land use and climate. I used a scenario analysis based on the latest Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e. SSP-RCP scenario framework) and further detail land-use scenarios for the region. I selected contrasting socio-economic and climate conditions (i.e. SSP1-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP8.5, SSP4-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5). In this analysis, the climate-change impact for the selected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was indicated by the FRS for grasslands as estimated in Chapter 2; the land-use change impact was indicated by changes in land-use intensity derived from the land-use scenarios; and the future biodiversity was indicated by the Mean Species Abundance (MSA). The MSA expresses the mean abundance of originally occurring species in disturbed conditions (e.g. after climate change) relative to their original abundance in undisturbed habitats. The contrasting scenario combinations showed that grasslands’ biodiversity remained under continuous threat and will further decline under each scenario. The strongest impact on biodiversity was projected in SSP5-RCP8.5, where half of the grasslands will likely undergo a large decrease in their species abundance by 2100. This chapter stressed the potential vulnerability of the Central Asian grasslands to increasing land-use intensity and climate change. In Chapter 4, I explored interaction mechanisms between climate and land-use change effects on biodiversity. Climate change and land-use change are often addressed as drivers that interact synergistically in several ways and alter their mutual effects on biodiversity. I identified interaction mechanisms in which species in heavily modified landscapes may respond differently to climate change than species in pristine landscapes. These interactions arise if 1) species adapted to modified landscapes differ in their sensitivity to climate change from species adapted to natural landscapes and if 2) land-use composition restricts climate-change induced dispersal of species in fragmented landscapes. To verify these conditions, I performed systematic reviews and a meta-analysis of bioclimatic studies on species distributions in landscapes with varying proportions of cropland (first condition) and species’ dispersal under climate change in fragmented landscapes (second condition). I used the FRS as the effect-size metric in this meta-analysis. Based on the results of this analysis, I found no significant interaction effect for the first condition. This indicates that the influence of global mean temperature increase on the FRS did not change with different cropland levels. No quantitative studies were found to verify the second condition for climate-change induced dispersal of species. This chapter emphasized the need to assess interactions between land-use and climate-change effects on biodiversity, integrating other conditions, such as spatial location, adaptive capacity and time lags. In Chapter 5, I assessed carbon-dioxide-removal options in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors (i.e. land-based mitigation options) implemented in different mitigation pathways that keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C for their biodiversity impacts using the MSA indicator. Land-based mitigation options may preserve, increase or deteriorate biodiversity, because of their land-use impact. In this chapter, I reviewed climate change mitigation studies that assessed each of the selected land-based mitigation options and indicated the land transition needed to achieve a significant climate change mitigation (i.e. potential land-cover and/or land-use change). I found that reforestation of cultivated and managed areas together with restoration of wetlands deliver the largest increase of MSA, if provided the opportunity to reach mature states over time. Contrary, intensification of agricultural areas and bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration decreased MSA locally. Options such as afforestation and reduced deforestation, either positively or negatively affect MSA. This depends on their spatial implementation and the precise forest conservation schemes. This chapter provided insights on possible synergies that emerge from certain scenarios and their benefits for current and future biodiversity conservation in regions with large land-based mitigation potential. My PhD thesis advanced scientific understanding of climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity that can feed into the current UN Conventions on Biological Diversity and Climate Change agendas. It showed future biodiversity trends and proposed methods that translate relevant information of socio-economic and climate-change drivers to assess interactions between climate and land-use change effects on biodiversity. Such knowledge is quickly becoming an important element to develop strategies for regional and global biodiversity conservation and thus to minimize biodiversity loss. I stress the importance of holding climate change well-below 2°C as this helps to maintain the composition of local communities and their climatically suitable areas, while seeking for the desired combinations that will reduce the use of detrimental land-based mitigation options to biodiversity.

Prior studies mainly focused on the effects of particulate air pollution on physiological health, relatively few researchers paid attention to psychological well-being. There is lacuna of knowledge on the effects of air pollution on aesthetic preferences. To fill this gap this study examines ten sample sites of urban green space, and eight photographs were taken on each site (seven photographs on the tenth site) in eight days, respectively. These photographs on a site contained the same scene. The aesthetic preference and perceived air quality of the photographs were evaluated by 766 participants, and wind speed, amount of clouds in the sky, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) of each site were measured in situ when the photographs were taken. The results suggest that: (a) percentage of sky covered by cloud, PM2.5 and PM10 have significantly negative correlations with aesthetic preference and perceived air quality, while the regression analysis indicates that percentage of sky covered by cloud is the sole predictor for both aesthetic preference and perceived air quality; (b) perceived air quality is the reliable predictor of aesthetic preference. These findings contribute new knowledge to understand the particulate air pollution's effect on psychological well-being.

We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.

Climate change poses a major threat to coral reef ecosystems, and will affect coral reef fishes in three main ways. First and foremost, climate change is already contributing to widespread degradation of coral reef habitats, leading to declines in abundance and diversity of reef-associated fishes. Second, increasing temperatures will have direct effects on the individual condition and fitness of some coral reef fishes. Unless these species can adapt to changing temperature regimes, it is likely that they will persist in either a small portion of their current geographical extent or move poleward, invading new habitats and potentially displacing other fish species. The third effect relates to rising CO2 levels and ocean acidification, which could have significant physiological and behavioral effects on fishes towards the latter part of this century. It is unequivocal that climate change will affect reef fishes throughout this century. However, small-scale experimental studies, which are often focused on a single species and a single environmental factor, provide limited insight on expected changes in the biodiversity, productivity, and composition of reef fish assemblages. Future research will need to assess synergistic effects of different environmental variables on not only individual species, but also on biotic interactions and community dynamics, as well as exploring the adaptive capacity of species. Global climate change has the capacity to greatly alter the biodiversity, function, and productivity of coral reef ecosystems [e.g. 1137]. Emerging effects of global climate change have so far been manifest mainly as increased incidence of mass bleaching and disease among scleractinian corals and other zooxanthellate organisms, which is directly contributing to widespread degradation of coral reef habitats [1192], and will be increasingly compounded by effects of ocean acidification [1139]. In the Indo-Pacific, extensive depletion of scleractinian corals and associated changes in the biological and physical structure of coral reef habitats has important effects on the structure and dynamics of local populations and communities of coral reef fishes [2023, 2027, 2707]. Consequently, climate change and ocean acidification will have significant indirect effects on coral reef fishes due to their effects on coral reef habitat.

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Tackling the Research Challenges of Health and Climate Change

The effects of climate change on tropical birds

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O3 that offset the O3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O3 – termed the O3 climate penalty – especially in southern Europe. The O3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O3 distribution, such as daily maximum O3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O3-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O3-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH4 leads to global and European excess O3-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

Climate change phenomena represent the most serious threats to human well-being and sustainable development. This affects several dimensions of human life from individual health issues to economic growth, passing through civil protection, with strong impacts on European territories and in several other world regions. The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) project faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens (students, cultural associations, cyclists, boat men etc) for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal , the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.The overall driving concept is that citizens and civil society have a central role in the definition of environmental protection and climate action and their direct involvement is essential to drive a true shift and promotion of changes of behaviors towards more sustainable patterns. I-CHANGE represents a change of paradigm achievable through a multidisciplinary and participatory approach: improvement of data usability - citizen understanding raises through the observation of the environmental impacts of human activities; active participation of citizens - the active involvement of citizens through a set of Living Labs (LLs) located in different socio-economic contexts (Europe, Middle-East and Africa); climate change awareness &amp;#8211; the development of clear understanding for citizens of the scientific processes underlying climate change and environmental protections; behaviour change &amp;#8211; addressing the climate crisis requires a focus on high-impact behaviours and high-emitting groups. First year and half of I-CHANGE activities will be presented and discussed.&amp;#160;

INTRODUCTION Coral reef ecosystems are under increasing threat due to the synergistic effects of habitat destruction, overfishing, eutrophication and climate change (Hughes et al., 2003, 2007; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). In response to these threats, management strategies that implement networks of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have gained momentum in the past few decades. Networks of MPAs can protect coral reef biodiversity from anthropogenic impacts either by eliminating the impacts of overfishing and habitat destruction, or by increasing ecosystem resilience to other anthropogenic disturbances (Russ and Zeller, 2003; McCook et al., 2010). For networks of MPAs to be effective they must meet three key elements. Individual MPAs must be (1) partially self-seeding (Almany et al., 2007, 2009), (2) adequately connected to other MPAs via dispersal (Jones et al., 2007; Almany et al., 2009), and (3) they must protect target organisms during life stages when they are most vulnerable to anthropogenic impact (Zeller and Russ, 1998). Accordingly, MPAs should be large enough to encompass individual home ranges of the target species and to ensure a portion of the larvae produced within a MPA settles within its boundaries (Almany et al., 2009). Furthermore, networks of MPAs must ensure genetic and demographic connectivity between protected areas. Connectivity is defined as the exchange of individuals between populations. Connectivity bolsters local resilience to stochastic demographic fluctuations and in so doing, minimizes genetic erosion, the risk of inbreeding depression and ultimately maximizes adaptive potential (Almany et al., 2009). Here we discuss how different life history strategies may affect the feasibility of achieving the three requirements for effective long-term conservation (selfseeding, connectivity, and protection). While sedentary organisms with a pelagic larval phase (most reef fishes and invertebrates), readily achieve this trinity (Planes et al., 2009), animals where dispersal only occurs as adults inevitably fail to meet all three requirements simultaneously (Figure 1). Here we propose a potential solution focusing on incorporating information on how habitat shapes adult dispersal to increase connectivity within networks of MPAs.

Climate Change, Connectivity, and Conservation Success