Structural Changes to China’s Agricultural Business Entities System Under the Perspective of Competitive Evolution

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With the development of new agricultural business entities in China, a complex competitive evolutionary dynamic has emerged among diversified agricultural business entities (abbreviated as ABEs), including farmers (traditional ABEs), cooperatives, agricultural enterprises, and family farms (new ABEs). Based on the Lotka–Volterra model, the dominance index, the Shannon–Wiener index of ecological theories, and the geo-detector, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ABEs’ structural changes across 286 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2021. Key findings include: (1) Farmers maintain absolute numerical dominance, but their relative advantage has declined. (2) The Shannon–Wiener index of diversified ABEs has increased significantly, indicating that differences between ABEs decreased, which means a trend toward structural homogenization. High Shannon–Wiener index values were observed in the Northeast Plain, Xinjiang, Hebei, Gansu, and Shanxi, while low values were concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, and the Guangdong-Guangxi region. Both areas experienced a shrinking trend. (3) Agricultural production factors such as multiple cropping indexes and theindustrial structure strongly explained the structural changes to ABEs, while the explanatory power of socio-economic factors can be enhanced after the interaction with agricultural production factors. (4) The relationship between farmers and new ABEs has shifted from a symbiotic relationship favoring farmers to a symbiotic relationship favoring new ABEs, with a significant spatial heterogenous layout among 286 cities. This study proposes a three-stage differentiation framework for ABEs: a simple structure dominated by traditional farmers, a competitive evolutionary dynamic among diversified ABEs, and a modernized structure led by new agricultural business entities. Based on these stages, this paper provides targeted recommendations for building a high-quality ABE system and advancing agricultural modernization.