Abstract
In principle, a few of the strong earthquakes (I0 >= 8/9, M >= 5.8) that affected Italy in the past may still be missing from parametric catalogues or be listed there as lesser events, their actual strength unrealized. This seems a reasonable enough inference, given that some strong earthquakes were listed by catalogues quite by chance, from information drawn, mainly or even solely, from a single source. Had this source been destroyed before catalogue compilers were able to consider it, or had they for any reason overlooked it, the earthquake it recorded could also have been missed or underestimated. This paper examines the two most peculiar Italian cases of «single-source earthquakes» (1561 «Vallo di Diano?»; 1639 «Amatrice?»). Is all relevant information on each event really tied up in a single source? And if so, why? Finally, are these cases unique or do they share any common features that could, by occurring elsewhere, act as markers for situations where forgotten earthquakes could still lurk undetected?
Highlights
It is unlikely that many strong earthquakes (I0 ≥ 8/9, M ≥ 5.8) are still missing from Italian catalogues: the latest such catalogue (CPTI Working Group, 1999) lists 141 of them, and there are physical limits to the amount of energy that Italian seismogenic structures can have released
Even empirical but perhaps more convincing way to the same end, it was decided to single out some extreme cases of strong earthquakes that could reasonably be said to have been catalogued only «by chance», and to look at them closely
Was there some special reason for this to happen in these particular cases? And are they unique or do they share some common features, a pattern whose re-appearance in other, seemingly earthquakeless areas
Summary
It is unlikely that many strong earthquakes (I0 ≥ 8/9, M ≥ 5.8) are still missing from Italian catalogues: the latest such catalogue (CPTI Working Group, 1999) lists 141 of them, and there are physical limits to the amount of energy that Italian seismogenic structures can have released. Even empirical but perhaps more convincing way to the same end, it was decided to single out some extreme cases of strong earthquakes that could reasonably be said to have been catalogued only «by chance», and to look at them closely. These earthquakes only narrowly avoided being left out of catalogues. Viviana Castelli could mark the occurrence of some as yet undetected seismic event?
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