Strengths and weakness of the methodologies for the innovative nuclear systems analysis

Abstract

At present nuclear energy is in a transition situation. New efforts are being used trying to find the way to build more nuclear power. As the nuclear energy is an inherently multivariable system, the potential judgment at the ends tends to evolve towards multi criteria analysis methodologies trying to analyze innovative nuclear systems for the future. Nuclear energy has been an active energy player starting 50 years ago, and several times big efforts have been used trying to evaluate the potential of future development of nuclear energy depending on future scenarios using multi criteria analysis methods. Without the intention to be performed an assessment about what finally happens in the evolution of nuclear technology, performing only factual comparison and using only data available in the 1950s, in this work is analyzed if multi criteria analysis methods is sufficient to predict the final success of the currently available well-established commercial reactors. The conclusion is that if uncertainties are not included, the classical multi criteria methodologies evaluated could not be used to predict the successful deployment of PWR, BWR and CANDU, with the status of knowledge of 1956, and without including others factors and external non numerical judgment. Uncertainties produce compatible results with the further historical evolution, but if they have to be included with large margins and as a penalty in the figures of merit.