Abstract
Under the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world economic space, the agricultural sector is one of the priority and strategically important sectors of the national economy. The research objective is to substantiate the theoretical, methodological and methodical principles of strategic management of economic development of the regional agricultural sector and to solve actual problems in order to optimize strategic management based on cognitive scenarios of supply and demand balancing in the agrarian market, probabilistic modeling, which allows the regions to identify the “growth points”, to optimize the sectoral structures of the economy, to improve the quality and efficiency of the developed and implemented scenarios and the strategies of the agroindustrial production development in the region.As a result of the research, a scenario-probabilistic model of economic development of the regional agrarian sector was proposed, which allows to identify the priority directions for the long-term perspective, to adjust the direction of development if necessary, to explore different scenarios of the development of events on the priorities change at the macro level in the conditions of uncertainty and risks.Thus, the practical value of the research enables to predict the strategic development of the agricultural sector of the region and its individual areas by using a systematic approach and compositions of methodological approaches to analysis and forecasting, considering it as a complex and structured system.
Highlights
The modern stage of transition to another model of the national economy at the regional level should be characterized by the formation of long-term development priorities aimed at overcoming the present challenges, and the identification of promising directions, maybe as of yet new, but priority for the future
For strategic management of social and economic development of the region and certain branches of its economy, it is offered to apply methodological approaches based on the use of modern tools of predictive modeling and planning
Cient; Durbin-Watson statistics; multiple determination coefficient; Akaike information criterion; After a period when the national economy funcSchwarz-Bayesian statistics; sum of squared de- tioned in the conditions of socio-political and fiviations of the model; Fisher statistics, were used. nancial instability, a rapid reorientation of foreign economic relations, the active implementation of Using the estimates of combined forecasts is jus- reforms accompanied by radical changes in almost tified in order to select the best model developed all the spheres of economy and society need to be in the automatic mode (McAllester & Rosenblitt, revised and supplemented by the existing method 1991)
Summary
The modern stage of transition to another model of the national economy at the regional level should be characterized by the formation of long-term development priorities aimed at overcoming the present challenges, and the identification of promising directions, maybe as of yet new, but priority for the future. For strategic management of social and economic development of the region and certain branches of its economy, it is offered to apply methodological approaches based on the use of modern tools of predictive modeling and planning. The purpose of the article is to study, analyze and develop financial and economic methods for selecting the priority directions of the agricultural sector of the region as the basis for strategic planning and forecasting, as well as improving the results with the quantitative characteristics of alternative scenarios
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