Strategic Behaviour in Imperialist Interstate Conflict: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Abstract

This paper aims at presenting a game-theoretic analysis of interstate conflict in modern East Asia involving two countries, by focusing on historical junctures whereby imperial expansion reached and conflicted with China, Japan, and Korea. Two questions are addressed regarding the outcome and the rule of the game: why did some crises end up peacefully while others escalated to armed conflict, and how can we explain the process of strategic interaction? I conducted two works: First, I built up a generic game, the structure of which is determined by the attitude of the target country and the type of foreign power. Second, I analyzed the process of conflict resolution using standard game theory and the Theory of Moves, which assume different rules of play. I argue that the latter provides more coherent accounts for dynamic aspects of imperialist interstate conflict in modern East Asia.