Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a rapidly decorrelating process that strongly affects the climate over the Atlantic and the surrounding continents. Although the NAO itself is basically unpredictable on seasonal timescales using statistical methods, NAO forcing is here shown to significantly affect sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolving on those timescales. Results using linear inverse modeling (LIM) imply that the NAO index and its convolution with deterministic SST dynamics account for nearly half the unpredictable component of north tropical Atlantic SST at lead times greater than 9 months; adding this component to hindcasts at a lead of 48 weeks increases correlation with north tropical Atlantic SST from about 0.4 to about 0.6. Rapid fluctuations during boreal winter and spring, when the NAO is strongest, affect SST predictability throughout the entire year.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
