Stepping up during a crisis: The unintended effects of a noncontributory pension program during the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

We use a regression discontinuity design to study the impacts of a noncontributory pension program covering one-third of Bolivian households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Becoming eligible for the program during the crisis increased the probability that households had a week's worth of food stocked by 25% and decreased the probability of going hungry by 40%. Although the program was not designed to provide emergency assistance, it provided unintended positive impacts during the crisis. The program's effects on hunger were particularly large for households that lost their livelihoods during the crisis and for low-income households. The results suggest that, during a systemic crisis, a preexisting near-universal pension program can quickly deliver positive impacts in line with the primary goals of a social safety net composed of an income-targeted cash transfer and an unemployment insurance program.