Staying the Course in ‘Fourth-Generation Warfare’: Persuasion and Perseverance in the Era of the Asymmetric Bargaining War

Abstract

The US brought 20th-century warfare to its apogee in the 1990s, with new techniques and technologies. Contrary to the trend in US planning, however, lower intensity conflicts emerged as the dominant idiom of warfare. In seeking to understand these developments, a number of US strategists suggested that the world was now moving into a ‘fourth generation of warfare’ (4GW). Subsequent theorizing about 4GW highlighted a number of important points. First, the enemy was likely to be dissipated and diffusely organized. Second, amid the Western states' world of law, liberal values, and media transparency, their use of force had to be limited. Third, military operational art has now become less about the decisive physical defeat of the opposing forces and more about persuading the enemy to give up. Now is the era of the asymmetric bargaining war, the parameters of which have been tested in the ‘global war on terrorism’ and in Iraq. While Western states were potentially capable actors, the doctrine and practice of the contemporary bargaining war was far from understood, and serious questions emerged over the effectiveness of the strategies adopted as well as the ability to persevere. The article concludes by suggesting that the development of a multi-lateralized model of intervention might be the best way of meeting the challenges of 4GW.