Statistical Uncertainty Quantification of Probability Tables for Unresolved Resonance Cross Sections

Abstract

The probability table method is an important method to treat the self-shielding effect in the unresolved resonance region. A probability table is generated by using many “ladders” that represent pseudo resonance structures. This study developed a quantification method of the statistical uncertainty of a probability table. The product of the probability table and average cross section in each probability bin was considered as the target of the statistical uncertainty of the probability table. The central limit theorem (CLT), bootstrap method, and jackknife method were adopted to calculate the statistical uncertainty. The statistical uncertainties calculated using these methods were compared with the reference results. The calculation results showed that the statistical uncertainties obtained by CLT were similar to those of the other methods. Because the CLT calculation time was faster than that of the other methods, CLT was deemed as the best method for calculating the statistical uncertainty of the probability table. The statistical uncertainty quantification of the probability table developed in this study was implemented in nuclear data processing code FRENDY version 2. FRENDY version 2 can generate a probability table using the tolerance of the statistical uncertainty of the probability table.