Abstract
Two statistical models are developed to predict the travel time of solute within a river system dominated by advective transport and subject to changing discharge conditions. Both models are driven by discharge and have two statistically estimated parameters. One of the models has a deterministic derivation and requires knowledge of wave travel time versus discharge as additional input. The other model is empirically derived from identification and fitting of a power law in discharge related directly to historical solute travel time data. The models have comparable performance on our data sets. However, the former may be preferred when reasonable information on the wave travel time-discharge relationship is available and when predictions of solute travel time are required for discharge values outside the range of available historical discharge-solute travel time data. The models are applied to three reaches of the River Murray system in Australia and the results of separate calibration and validation exercises are reported.
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