Statistical Modelling of Outage Events, Available Capacity, and Foreign Exchange Rate with Grid-Connected Power Generation in Nigeria.

While the regulatory and institutional reforms in the Nigerian electricity sector, as envisaged under the National Electric Power Policy 2001 and the Nigerian Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005, appear to be on a steady path, the reforms in the petroleum industry, as envisaged under the National Oil and Gas Policy 2004 and the Petroleum Industry Bill, has remained in a mire of uncertainty, especially with regards to their conclusions and overall implementation. The effects of the uncertainty and the consequential lingering disequilibrium between the gas and electricity sectors, has critical implications for investments, infrastructure development and the overall gas supply to power outlook. The electricity sector reforms are largely dependent on the availability, affordability and reliability of domestic gas supply to over 70% of installed national power generation capacity. The regular shortages in gas supply to power electricity generation in Nigeria can be directly or indirectly linked to the regulatory inefficiency of the existing regulatory framework in domestic gas supply. Thus, while power sector assets are being privatized and liberalization is introduced in the medium to long term, it is essential to ensure that the parallel development of the appropriate regulatory framework is established for the domestic gas sector. Such a regulatory framework is required to create the required commercial environment where investments in gas supply infrastructure thrive. The aim of this article is to examine the existing and proposed laws, policies and regulations in relation to domestic gas supply in Nigeria as they affect power generation and the realization of identified economic and policy objectives.

The low power generation in Nigeria had hindered her economic growth and industrialisation. The nation had carried out various reform to ameliorate the electric power crisis but all to no avail. The electric power crisis has made so many industries to relocate to more environmental friendly nations. Furthermore, the terrible state of the nation’s basic infrastructure such as water supply, health care system and petroleum product distribution are all symptom of an economy that is insalubrious because of the nations’ incapability to meet electric power demand. The subject of power generation in Nigeria is interesting, vital and worthy of investigation. Some researchers have investigated the root causes of low power generation in Nigeria and they came up with diverse factors responsible for the lingering electric power crisis. In this research, a review of previous papers in the literature on factors responsible for the low power generation in Nigeria is performed. From the survey, an all-inclusive factors affecting power generation in Nigeria are presented and discussed. On the basis of the number of authors that cited the individual factor, the whole factors are ranked and categorised. Finally, in this paper, general solutions are proffered to minimise /eliminate the major challenges confronting power generation in Nigeria. The research findings revealed that the major challenges confronting power generation in Nigeria are factors such as poor plant maintenance, aged/obsolete equipment and gas pipe line vandalism and that these challenges can be minimised/eliminated through structured maintenance methodology and adequate funding among others.

This research presents Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping and development of biomass for combined heat and power (CHP) generation in Nigeria. It includes crop and forest classification, thermodynamic, and exergo-economic analyses using ArcGIS, Engineering Equation Solver, and Microsoft Excel. Syngas generated from biomass residues powered an integrated CHP system combining a gas turbine (GT), dual steam turbine (DST), and a cascade organic Rankine cycle (CORC) plant. The net power output of the integrated system stood at 2911 MW, with a major contribution from the gas turbine cycle (GTC) unit. The system had a total exergy destruction of 6480 MW, mainly in the combustion chamber (2143 MW) and HP-HRSG (1660 MW), and produced 3370.41 MW of heat, with a flue gas exit temperature of 74 °C. The plant’s energy and exergy efficiencies were 87.16% and 50.30%, respectively. The BCHP system showed good economic and environmental performance, with an annualized life cycle cost of USD 93.4 million, unit cost of energy of 0.0076 USD/kWh, and a 7.5-year break-even. The emissions and impact factors align with those of similar existing plants. It demonstrates that biomass residue can significantly support Nigeria’s energy needs and contribute to clean energy goals under the Paris Agreement and UN-SDGs. This work suggests a pathway to tackle energy insecurity, inform policymakers on biomass-to-energy, and serve as a foundation for future techno-economic–environmental assessment of biomass residues across suitable locations in Nigeria.

Implications of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on the U.S. electric power sector

Nigeria is blessed with diverse energy resources. The country had generated electricity from coal in the 1950s, but this was abandoned in the wake of the civil war (1969-1970) and the focus changed to petroleum. Nigeria now generates her electricity mostly from gas thermal plants (64.6%). Electricity in Nigeria is poor, of low quality with frequent unplanned outages. Nigeria has about 8000MW installed electricity generation capacity but only 3800-4000 MW is actually operational. The government now wishes to diversify the electricity generation mix by encouraging private sector participation in the energy sector and targeted 30% electricity generation from coal. The study reviewed policies relating to coal power generation in Nigeria and the causes of previous failures in the sector. The study found that the electricity sector reforms and other policy changes have spurred investment of nearly $10 billion in the coal sector. Five projects of 4800MW generation capacity are under construction. Of this, two projects located in Enugu state of combined capacity of 1600MW could be ready by 2015. These two projects accounted for 40% of total installed capacity, or 20% operational electricity generation in Nigeria. The paper also presents the prospects and challenges of coal power generation in Nigeria.

As an essential measure to mitigate the CO2 emissions, China is constructing a nationwide carbon emission trading (CET) market. The electric power industry is the first sector that will be introduced into this market, but the quota allocation scheme, as the key foundation of market transactions, is still undetermined. This research employed the gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, and electric generation data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2015, a hybrid trend forecasting model, and a three-indicator allocation model to measure the provincial quota allocation for carbon emissions in China’s electric power sector. The conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis can be summarized as follows: (1) The carbon emission peak in China’s electric power sector will appear in 2027, and peak emissions will be 3.63 billion tons, which will surpass the total carbon emissions of the European Union (EU) and approximately equal to 2/3 of the United States of America (USA). (2) The developed provinces that are supported by traditional industries should take more responsibility for carbon mitigation. (3) Nine provinces are expected to be the buyers in the CET market. These provinces are mostly located in eastern China, and account for approximately 63.65% of China’s carbon emissions generated by the electric power sector. (4) The long-distance electric power transmission shifts the carbon emissions and then has an impact on the quotas allocation for carbon emissions. (5) The development and effective utilization of clean power generation will play a positive role for carbon mitigation in China’s electric sector.

The psychology of socio-technical systems: Professionalism, power, and personality in the electricity sector

The main objective of the Nigerian electric power sector reform was to catalyse private sector investment in the sector. In essence, the reform involved the liberalisation and deregulation of the then wholly government owned and managed electric power sector. This was essential to augment whatever government funds were available for the upgrade of the country’s collapsing electricity infrastructure. The idea was to attract majority of the investment from overseas. However, after the initial divestment of some of the government owned successor companies, it became apparent that majority of the investors in the assets were local Nigerian businesses; very few foreign investors were attracted to the nascent Nigerian electricity market. This same scenario played out again a few years later, when the government conducted the sale of additional thermal plants under the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP). On this occasion, not only did the foreign investors not show up, local investors also refused to pay for the assets. Worryingly too, there have been very few green field assets built by private sector investors since the conclusion of the electricity reforms. This paper seeks to understand the reasons for the apathy shown by foreign investors and most recently local investors to the Nigerian electricity sector. The paper suggests options for turning the situation around and encouraging the much desired private sector investment in the sector.

This paper fits a multivariate linear Regression model for the relationship between four response variables; foreign trades (cost of oil imported, cost of non-oil imported, cost of oil exported and cost of non-oil exported) and two predictor variables; foreign exchange rate of US Dollar and Pounds Sterling between 1960--2010. The null hypothesis that no linear relationship exists between foreign trades and foreign exchange rate were proposed. The model indicates an adequate relationship between the foreign trade and exchange rate. We observed from model 1 to model 4 of the multivariate linear regression that the multivariate bootstrap method when compared with the analytic method yielded a reduced standard error. This shows that multivariate bootstrap is good methods in controlling variation among observations. We further observed that the exchange rate of US Dollar and Pounds Sterling contributed 68% effect on the Nigerian foreign trades while 32% may be attributed to other unexplained factors. This indicates that multivariate bootstrap method offer considerable potentials in the estimation of multivariate linear regression parameters. Thus, the results reveal that bootstrap resampling allows empirical assessment of the analytical model and it is a good approximation to the analytical model.

In the electric power industry the observed increases of electricity price dynamics combined with the characteristic periodicity of related decision processes have motivated the use of multistage stochastic programming in recent years to provide flexible models for practical applications in the sector. Specifically in power generation and trading the planning process must obey highly complex interrelations between manifold influences. They range from short term price fluctuations as observed in spot markets to long term changes of fundamental influences. Not only changes in the electric supply system itself must be considered, but also the related availability and costs of required fuels. For example, the prices and usability of natural gas in power generation also depend on the existence of respective deployment and distribution systems. Furthermore the electric power sector is exposed to manifold regulatory uncertainties related to the rules imposed by the responsible authorities. Recently environmental issues have become very popular due to the ongoing discussion on climate change. In January 2005 the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has been launched which by many is considered a new key element in efficient electricity market operations. In this paper we will introduce a modeling framework that considers the influence of emission trading on portfolio problems in the electric power sector by applying clean valuation schemes that particularly take fuel costs, emission efficiency in combination with investment possibilities and generation flexibility into account. Sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to changes in technology, volatilities and price scenarios.

This paper investigated the effects of foreign direct investment inflows on the real sector of the Nigerian economy (2000-2015). The specific objectives of the paper were to: evaluate the relationship between the FDI inflows and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria; determine the relationship between FDI inflows and agricultural production in Nigeria; and to assess the relationship between FDI inflows and the power generation in Nigeria. Data for the study were analyzed by the use of correlation and regression analysis aided by SPSS. The results of the analyses shows that, foreign direct investment inflows has no significant positive relationship with the manufacturing sector output; there is no significant positive relationship between foreign direct investment inflows and agricultural sector and; there is significant positive relationship between foreign direct investment inflows and the power generation in Nigeria. The paper recommended that, the Nigerian government should ensure the transparency of the operations of foreign investors within the economy so as to engender trust and confidence between the two parties and also good and stable infrastructural facilities such as electricity, roads, water etc. are highly needed to attract FDI inflows into the real sectors of Nigerian economy. All major factors that were documented as constraint to industrial growth and performance of manufacturing sector in Nigeria, since the 1980s, would need to be tackled in an urgent manner.

From Kyoto to Paris, treaties and protocols have been devised and ratified unanimously in order to prevent the well-known phenomenon “climate change”. But has global warming been practically deferred or prevented? If so, then why should we experience warmer seasons each year or even behold water level rise due to the melting of arctic ice mountains? These are serious questions that could expose the future of green energies and green policies to jeopardy, if not answered to scientifically. Hence, we decided to provide a proof to clarify whether the practice of green policies could lead to actual results or the enacted protocols and policies are just fantasies. As a case, the U.S. electricity sector was selected and by providing an econometric framework, the dynamics between the carbon dioxide and coal as the main culprit of global warming and total amount of exploited renewable energy in power generation was studied.

PurposeThe present study examines the long-run and short-run effects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe study used sophisticated econometric tools to analyse monthly observations from January 1993 to December 2019.FindingsThe augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test indicates that the variables involved in the present study are either I(0) or I(1). The Bai–Perron test multiple break point test identifies four breakpoint dates in the Indian stock market index series. The breakpoint dates are incorporated as different dummy variables in the autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model (ARDL-ECM) regression. The F-bounds test reveals that the variables in the study are cointegrated within the time period under consideration. This study’s findings show that the interest rate, which is a proxy for monetary policy instrument, and the foreign currency exchange rate have a negative impact on the Indian stock market. Furthermore, the authors find that structural changes significantly affect the performance of Indian stock market.Practical implicationsThe study's outcomes indicate that economic factors should be taken into account by investors and portfolio managers when formulating long-term investment strategies. The government, through the Reserve Bank of India, should exercise caution in avoiding discretionary actions that could increase interest rates since the flow of funds to the stock market will be disrupted. To reduce risk, investors should keep a close eye on how interest rates and foreign exchange rates are rising.Originality/valueThe study covers a long period of time, which the majority of previous work did not consider. Furthermore, the study uses different dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks (as determined by the Bai–Perron multiple break point test).

Policies to promote energy efficiency and air emissions reductions in China's electric power generation sector during the 11th and 12th five-year plan periods: Achievements, remaining challenges, and opportunities

Optimization of China’s electric power sector targeting water stress and carbon emissions