STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIVE MODELING OF EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL REINSURANCE MARKET STRUCTURES

Abstract

In the article the authors examine the reinsurance market of the Russian Federation; consider reinsurance premiums for incoming and outgoing external and internal reinsurance; based on statistical data, the authors made a conclusion about the externally oriented ceding market in the period 20132019. The authors present the structure of the reinsurance market by major companies and identify the main players in the market of incoming and outgoing reinsurance; consider the ratio of external and internal premiums for incoming and outgoing reinsurance. The authors complied time series models of reinsurance premiums for incoming and outgoing external and internal reinsurance based on retrospective data for 20162019. All functions are increasing, which indicates the positive dynamics of the studied market and the possibilities for further expansion and development. Based on the models, forecast values are calculated that allow to draw conclusions about the development and structure of the Russian reinsurance market. The reasons for the dominance of external reinsurance over internal in relation to outgoing contracts, consisting in the retroceding of risks to large international reinsurance companies, are identified, that occupy the most advantageous position in this market in comparison with domestic reinsurers.