Statistical analysis and modeling of regional economy and science relationship

Abstract

This paper proposes the analysis of regional economy dynamic model, reflecting the correlation between regional output, the number of employees and production funds. The attention is focused on the influence of different factors of science development on the economy. Those are: the number of PhD and researchers, the number of patents (of different kinds) and the new technologies. Besides, the sectoral orientation of the regional economy is taken into account, firstly, determined by the level of development of the mining and manufacturing. To build the models and make statistical calculations, the data of the official statistics is used. All the main parameters of the proposed model are estimated using modern computational optimization procedures given nonlinear dependencies. Statistical calculations showed that the obtained values of the main parameters of the models are significant, and the models themselves can be used for individual private estimations and forecasts. An important methodological feature of our approach: the necessary dependencies between model variables are identified with causal analysis methods and family hypothesis significance testing techniques. For this purpose, the general form of the production function is revealed by finding a graph of direct relationships of the entire system of the main variables. The resulting model is a methodological basis for constructing short-term forecasts of regional economic dynamics, which takes into account the contribution of science and the role of its individual components on economic growth. Besides, the dynamic model allows visualizing different variants of scenario analysis and gives an opportunity to optimize the trajectory. Selected computer calculations show how the qualitative nature of the trajectories of science and economy variables changes.