State and Transition Models: Theory, Applications, and Challenges

Abstract

State and transition models (STMs) are used to organize and communicate information regarding ecosystem change, especially the implications for management. The fundamental premise that rangelands can exhibit multiple states is now widely accepted and has deeply pervaded management thinking, even in the absence of formal STM development. The current application of STMs for management, however, has been limited by both the science and the ability of institutions to develop and use STMs. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive and contemporary overview of STM concepts and applications at a global level. We first review the ecological concepts underlying STMs with the goal of bridging STMs to recent theoretical developments in ecology. We then provide a synthesis of the history of STM development and current applications in rangelands of Australia, Argentina, the United States, and Mongolia, exploring why STMs have been limited in their application for management. Challenges in expanding the use of STMs for management are addressed and recent advances that may improve STMs, including participatory approaches in model development, the use of STMs within a structured decision-making process, and mapping of ecological states, are described. We conclude with a summary of actions that could increase the utility of STMs for collaborative adaptive management in the face of global change.