Stacking models of brain dynamics to improve prediction of subject traits in fMRI

Abstract

Abstract Beyond structural and time-averaged functional connectivity brain measures, modelling the way brain activity dynamically unfolds can add important information to our understanding and characterisation of individual cognitive traits. One approach to leveraging this information is to extract features from models of brain network dynamics to predict individual traits. However, these predictions are susceptible to variability due to factors such as variation in model estimation induced by the choice of hyperparameters. We suggest that, rather than merely being statistical noise, this variability may be useful in providing complementary information that can be leveraged to improve prediction accuracy. To leverage this variability, we propose the use of stacking, a prediction-driven approach for model selection. Specifically, we combine predictions developed from multiple hidden Markov models—a probabilistic generative model of network dynamics that identifies recurring patterns of brain activity—to demonstrate that stacking can slightly improve the accuracy and robustness of cognitive trait predictions. By comparing analysis from the Human Connectome Project and UK Biobank datasets, we show that stacking is relatively effective at improving prediction accuracy and robustness when there are enough subjects, and that the effectiveness of combining predictions from static and dynamic functional connectivity approaches depends on the length of scan per subject. We also show that the effectiveness of stacking predictions is driven by the accuracy and diversity in the underlying model estimations.