不同SSP-RCP情景下中国生态系统服务价值评估
定量评估生态系统服务价值是人类合理利用和管理生态系统的重要依据,未来气候情景下土地利用变化模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响评估对于区域生态系统服务管理、开展生态功能区划及减缓和适应气候变化等方面具有重要意义。基于最新IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和典型浓度路径(RCPs)的科学组合情景模拟得到的土地利用情景数据,对2020-2050年我国生态系统服务价值进行估算,并对2050年生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系进行讨论,主要得到以下结论:生态系统服务价值(ESV)在2020-2050年表现为SSP1-RCP2.6 > SSP2-RCP4.5 > SSP3-RCP6.0,SSP1-RCP2.6情景下2020年ESV为12.39×10<sup>4</sup>亿元,2050年ESV为12.34×10<sup>4</sup>亿元;SSP2-RCP4.5情景下2020年ESV为12.17×10<sup>4</sup>亿元,2050年ESV为12.11×10<sup>4</sup>亿元;SSP3-RCP6.0情景下2020年ESV为12.02×10<sup>4</sup>亿元,2050年ESV为11.53×10<sup>4</sup>亿元。且SSP3-RCP6.0情景下ESV下降速率较快,SSP1-RCP2.6和SSP2-RCP4.5中ESV变化情况较为稳定平缓。调节服务所占据的比例最大(66.98%-68.46%),位居第二的是支持服务(18.81%-20.64%),次之是供给服务(8.64%-9.44%),所占比例最小的是文化服务(3.19%-3.36%)。三种情景下协同性表现为SSP1-RCP2.6 > SSP2-RCP4.5 > SSP3-RCP6.0,因此以协同性最为显著的SSP1-RCP2.6情景为例,探讨其未来(2050年)生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系,可知2050年SSP1-RCP2.6情景下生态系统服务两两组合而成的6组相关关系均以协同关系为主,这其中支持-文化服务的协同度最高,与之相应的是其权衡度最低。权衡度最高的是供给-支持服务。研究从生态系统服务与气候变化的关系、优化生态系统管理、提升生态系统服务能力等进行了探讨,以期能够为我国生态系统保护、生态功能区划制定和气候变化应对等方面提供科学依据和决策支持。
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