Spillover Risks in REITs and other Asset Markets

Abstract

Based on Diebold and Yilmaz’s (International Journal of Forecasting 28:57–66, 2012) methodology, we estimate three return spillover indices in a four-asset system comprising equity REIT (EREIT), mortgage REIT (MREIT), stock, and bond for the sample period from January 1972 to September 2014. We find that the total return spillover risks account for about one-third of the total return variance, on average, in the four-asset system. When we add commercial real estate (CRE) to the system, but for a shorter sample period from February 1998 to September 2014, we estimate an average total return spillover risk of 28.0 %. In an extended Fama-French’s five-factor CAPM framework, we find that the net return spillover risks have significant and negative effects on EREIT and MREIT returns, but positive effects on bond return. We infer that during the period of high oil price volatility from 1978 to 1986, bond market, as a net “receiver” of market risks, increased its risk premiums in response to high spillover risks from other market. However, in the post-subprime crisis period, large spillover risks from the stock market, which is a net “transmitter” of risks, decreased EREIT and MREIT returns. We also find that CRE return is not affected by spillover risks from other markets. Institutional investors should thus not neglect spillover risks when constructing asset allocation strategies that include assets other than CRE.