Specification and Estimation of Models of Fertility

Abstract

In the past two decades, human fertility has become a subject of active concern to economic development planners and administrators throughout the Third World. It is widely agreed — although, some would argue, on the basis of relatively little evidence — that lower fertility rates would, in many cases, lead to a more rapid rate of economic and social development. This view has led to a growing emphasis on treating fertility-reduction policies as integral components of a nation’s overall development strategy. Consequently, recent years have witnessed a new concern in the Third World and in donor nations with the introduction of programmes that will lead to lower aggregate fertility rates. Moreover, as the competition for scarce public development resources has intensified, more attention has been paid to the assessment of the productivity of these programmes relative to other socio-economic development projects.