Spatio-temporal variations in the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate scenarios

Abstract

Predictions of changes in the distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate change scenarios may provide scientific support for the optimization of crop production and measures to mitigate climate change. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis using projections of future climate generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 for two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), adopted by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to study the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China. We investigated the migration of the centers of gravity of the cultivation areas based on climatic and hydrological factors from 2021 to 2100. The results indicated that, under RCP2.6, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice were located throughout China, except for on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, while the areas suitable for the cultivation of maize were located in northern, southwestern, central, eastern, parts of northeastern and some northern parts of western China. The distributions of both crops under RCP2.6 showed little change over time. In contrast, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize under RCP8.5 shifted northward and expanded from northwestern to northern China, as a result of greater warming in northern China and the faster warming trend under RCP8.5. This scenario would require much stronger climate mitigation policies to maintain the stable development of agriculture and to slow down the future migration of crop cultivation areas in China. The distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize should be studied further to design appropriate adaptation strategies for dealing with future climate change.