Spatiotemporal Relationship Between Tsunami Inundation and Evacuation Behavior

The Noto Peninsula earthquake occurred on January 1, 2024, with an MJ of 7.6. This earthquake was triggered by active submarine faults previously mapped off the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula and generated a tsunami. We mapped the tsunami inundation areas and tsunami runup and inundation heights associated with the 2024 earthquake along the coast of the entire Noto Peninsula based on high-resolution aerial photographs and field surveys. The tsunami inundation area was widely distributed along the coast of the Noto Peninsula, Hegurajima, and Notojima Islands. The tsunami inundation area was 3.7 km2 in total. The tsunami inundation areas were distributed continuously along the west and east coasts of the Noto Peninsula. In contrast, these were discontinuous along the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula. The characteristics of the regional patterns of the tsunami inundation were broadly consistent with the tsunami inundation assumptions made for tsunami hazard maps before the 2024 earthquake. The tsunami height was different between the east and west coasts of the Noto Peninsula, with a peak of 11.3 m in elevation at Kuroshima. The tsunami on the west coast was higher than the one on the east coast. This was due to the location of the earthquake source fault and the distribution of the slip amount of the fault. The distribution of tsunami heights is also influenced by tsunami propagation characteristics, such as reflection and refraction. The tsunami runup and inundation height of the 2024 earthquake was the largest along the coast of the northern Noto Peninsula since the twentieth century compared with the past earthquakes. In contrast to the tsunami height, damages induced by the tsunami were smaller along the west coast and larger along the east coast, which was attributed to the location of the settlements and the presence of coastal structures. This study will contribute to future tsunami disaster prevention along the Sea of Japan coastlines crucial for improving future response strategies by accurately determining tsunami height and potential damage.Graphical

We have developed a curved isochron clock (CIC) by modifying the radial isochron clock to provide a clean example of the acceleration (deceleration) effect. By analyzing a two-body system of coupled CICs, we determined that an unbalanced mutual interaction caused by curved isochron sets is the minimum mechanism needed for generating the acceleration (deceleration) effect in coupled oscillator systems. From this we can see that the Sakaguchi and Kuramoto (SK) model, which is a class of nonfrustrated mean field model, has an acceleration (deceleration) effect mechanism. To study frustrated coupled oscillator systems, we extended the SK model to two oscillator associative memory models, one with symmetric and the other with asymmetric dilution of coupling, which also have the minimum mechanism of the acceleration (deceleration) effect. We theoretically found that the Onsager reaction term (ORT), which is unique to frustrated systems, plays an important role in the acceleration (deceleration) effect. These two models are ideal for evaluating the effect of the ORT because, with the exception of the ORT, they have the same order parameter equations. We found that the two models have identical macroscopic properties, except for the acceleration effect caused by the ORT. By comparing the results of the two models, we can extract the effect of the ORT from only the rotation speeds of the oscillators.

The observation of surface water bodies in all weather conditions and better knowledge about inundation patterns are important for water resource management and flood early warning. Microwave radiometers at 37 GHz were applied to observe and study the inundation pattern in large subtropical floodplains in China, i.e. the Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake floodplains, due to the trade-off between the capability to penetrate hydrometeors and vegetation, revisiting time, and spatial coverage and resolution. Taking the shallow sensing depth at 37 GHz into account, open water, inundated area and water saturated soil surface all determine the surface emittance measured by the radiometer. Thus, Water Saturated Surface (WSS) is defined as the combination of these three land surface elements. In subtropical regions, seasonal changes in vegetation cover and various surface roughness conditions are the major challenges for the observation of surface water bodies with microwave radiometers. Atmospheric attenuation, observation gaps and errors in the microwave observations reduce the quality of daily radiometric observations. To deal with the attenuation due to vegetation and surface roughness, a two-step model was developed: the first step is to retrieve the polarization difference emissivity from Polarization Difference Brightness Temperature (PDBT) at 37 GHz with the simplified radiative transfer model and the vegetation optical thickness at 37 GHz parameterized from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ; the second step is to retrieve the fractional area of WSS from the emissivity difference with a linear model, which can be parameterized according to the Qp surface roughness model. To remove the noise and extract the surface signal (including surface emittance and vegetation attenuation) from the daily PDBT time series, the Time Series Analysis Procedure (TSAP) was developed to identify the spectral features of noisy components in the frequency domain and remove them with a proper filter. The overall method combined the TSAP and the two-step model to derive daily observation of WSS area. The retrieved WSS area in the Poyang Lake floodplain was in a good agreement with the lake area observed from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR). The observations and analysis of the inundation patterns in the Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake floodplains with this method illustrated the close relationship between inundated area, precipitation and stream flow. Furthermore, a lumped hydrological model, named the discrete rainfall-runoff model, was developed to fully use the retrieved WSS area and to study the role of inundated area in stream flow production. This model simulates stream flow as the integration of contributions of antecedent precipitation in a certain period. Three implementations of the model were developed with the help of ground water table depth and the retrieved WSS area. The case study in the Xiangjiang River basin (upstream catchment of the Dongting Lake floodplain), China, illustrated that: 1) the longest duration of antecedent precipitation is a key parameter to determine model performance; 2) long duration would increase the model uncertainty and lead to overfitting; 3) the application of the WSS area can reduce the duration required to achieve a reasonable accuracy. The model parameters indicated the interaction between stream flow and various water storages, and the calibration results of three implementations implied the recharge period of ground water.

Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders for an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs an evacuation response curve on the basis of traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene in 2011 in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope after the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. These changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be caused in part by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, or the nature of the location, in this case a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and the state-of-the-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with logit and Rayleigh functions fit empirical data better. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models from this hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays and weekends.

Updated International Society of Geriatric Oncology COVID-19 working group recommendations on COVID-19 vaccination among older adults with cancer

Abstract. This study visualized the spatio-temporal changes in the tsunami inundation area and analyzed its expansion mechanism. The most characteristic of the Great East Japan Earthquake is the damage caused by the tsunami. And 90% of the dead was caused by it. One of the factors is that the preparation of countermeasures corresponding to the huge tsunami was not fully prepared. Therefore, after the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government has emphasized the importance of the advance preparation of the hugest tsunami expected. According to the past experience the occurring of huge tsunami is very rare. Earthquake researchers have observed same scale tsunami in every 1000 years in Japan. According prediction, next huge tsunami may be happened around the 2030. Therefore, analyzing the tsunami inundation mechanism of the Great East Japan Great Eastern is important for the future tsunami countermeasure. The arrival time and spatial distribution of tsunami inundation can be considered as a main important component of evacuation planning. In addition, a wide range of inundation area caused by huge tsunami is suitable for analyzing the inundation mechanism compared with a small-scale tsunami inundation. In this study I would like to examine the tsunami inundation process caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.The method is as follows. First, movies shooting the tsunami inundation are collected from DVDs and TV hosting services. And they are examined as analysis materials. As a result, movies that taken from the ground were impossible to shoot the dynamic process of tsunami flooding. So that movies that taken from the helicopter or airplane was selected in this research. Next, the movies are converted into images at regular intervals of time. And adding position information to images (geo-reference), images are imported on the geographic information system (GIS). After that, Inundation limit lines are digitized. In this study, inundation limit lines are created at intervals of around 5 seconds. However, when the image is disturbed by dust etc., images of around 5 seconds are used. Basic information on the tsunami inundation handled in this study is shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.As the result, tsunami inundation process was strongly affected by the location of buildings (Figure 2). On the other hand, the inundation distance declined even where the fields spread. The spatio-temporal variation of the inundation process was quantitatively clarified. Regression analysis was performed with variables of inundation time and inundation distance. As a result, changes in correlation were observed in a certain section. In order to analyze the factors, two regression analyses were conducted. First is the inundation time and elevation as variables. Second is the inundation time and distance from buildings as variables. The building data had acquired the image before the earthquake (April 4, 2010) from Google Earth, and created the building shape data. As a result of each analysis, it became clear that sections where the elevation suddenly changes and the short distance from buildings, overlapped sections where the inundation distance does not extend (Figure 3). These results suggest that it is possible to predict inundation time and distance in other areas if parameters can be acquired.

When tsunami occurs, residents and visitors in coastal area should evacuate as soon as possible to an evacuation site or a safe building, in order to ensure safeness from tsunami inundation. However, for various reasons, it has been frequently observed in the past disasters that people did not evacuate immediately to the evacuation site, and lost time due to late departure or stopping-by behavior on the way to the evacuation site. In this study, Markov chain model for stopping-by behavior in tsunami evacuation with nonstationary transition probability was developed. The model includes three state, that are a state of being at home, a state of being out from home for one's business, and a state in an evacuation site. As a result of simulation, it was found that approximately 21 % of evacuees are exposed to high risk of human safety from tsunami inundation, in condition that tsunami arrival time is at 900 s after an earthquake. And it was also found that proportion of evacuees who are exposed to high risk from tsunami inundation would decrease at approximately 4 %, when residents who were not at home go evacuation sites directly, instead to go back home.

The effects of stress history and corrosive environment on fatigue crack propagation under stress amplitude, both constant and continuously varying, respectively, are hereunder discussed, and the following facts have been made clear: In air the crack rate under the continuously decreasing stress becomes smaller than the expected one based on the linear cumulative damage hypothesis. This is due to the deceleration effect corresponding to the delay in crack propagation found under the high-low two-step stress history. On the other hand, there is no effect of stress history to be observed on the crack growth under the continuously increasing stress. Accordingly, ∫(dn/N)>1 is concluded under the stress varying up and down periodically because of the deceleration effect of the crack propagation. In saline the same deceleration effect is observed under the continuously decreasing stress as is in air. On the other hand, when the stress amplitude is increased, the acceleration effect of the crack propagation is observed, though it tends to diminish at a smaller increasing rate of the stress amplitude under the continuously increasing stress. In consequence, ∫(dn/N)>1 is concluded under the stress varying up and down with the long period because of the more effective deceleration effect than the acceleration effect, whilst ∫(dn/N)≈1 is obtained under the stress up and down with the short period because of the mutual offset of the acceleration effect and the deceleration effect.

Run-up and Inundation Pattern Developed During the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India)

ABSTRACTOn the 22nd of December 2018 the shorelines of Sunda Strait, Indonesia, were hit by tsunami waves generated by the flank collapse of the Anak Krakatau volcano. The authors conducted a field survey of the affected areas in both Sumatra and Java islands to collect information on tsunami inundation and run-up heights, damage patterns at each coastal community, and the evacuation behaviour and tsunami awareness of the affected people. The survey results showed that in Sumatra island inundation heights of more than 4 m were measured along the coastline that was situated to the north-north-east of Anak Krakatau, while less than 4 m were measured along the north-western direction. Inundation heights of over 10 m were measured at Cipenyu Beach (Pandeglang Regency) in Java island (south-south-eastern direction from Anak Krakatau). A questionnaire survey conducted by the authors revealed residents’ perception of danger and evacuation patterns during the event. The results indicate the importance of having an operational tsunami warning system in Sunda Strait and the establishment of an appropriate evacuation plan so that residents can start evacuation immediately and reach a safe place without facing severe congestion along evacuation routes.

This paper shows that decrease of velocity magnitude downstream enhances the shear-layer instability in jetlike single- and two-fluid flows. This feature has not been recognized in stability studies, performed in the parallel and quasi-parallel flow approximations, because the deceleration effect is strongly non-parallel. It was first revealed in conical similarity flows. The similarity allows for reducing the base-flow and stability problems to ordinary differential equations exactly conserving the acceleration terms. This helps reveal the deceleration effect. The development of numerical technique for stability studies of two-dimensional flows helped understand the instability nature of swirling flows in sealed containers. It was found for an elongated cylinder with one rotating end disk and stationary other walls that the instability develops in the counterflow near the rotating disk, where the backflow decelerates and the shear-layer and deceleration effects cooperate. An interesting stabilizing effect of acceleration is observed in a model heat exchanger. The thermal convection develops in a rotating cylindrical container whose sidewall is adiabatic and the end disks have different temperatures. The centrifugal acceleration suppresses, while the temperature difference stimulates, the shear-layer instability of this flow. Next, the review discusses two-fluid flows in a sealed vertical container, driven by either bottom (whirlpool model) or lid (waterspout model) rotation. As the rotation speeds up, the shear-layer instability develops in a jet-like boundary layer in the air–water flows. The jet forms near a rotating disk, goes to the interface near the sidewall, and converges to the axis near the interface. New circulatory cells emerge in both fluids and the interface significantly bends. The instability develops after such flow pattern becomes well formed. The instability focuses near the interface where the jet-like motion approaches a new cell, decelerates, and diverges—hence the deceleration and shear-layer effects work together. In oil–water flows, the instability develops in the lower fluid, either in its depth or near the interface depending on the water volume fraction. Thus, the review shows that deceleration enhanced the shear-layer instability in a wide group of flows.

ObjectivesBooster COVID-19 vaccinations are used to protect the elderly, a group vulnerable to severe disease. We compared humoral and cellular immunity in older versus younger adults up to eight months after administering a BNT16b2 booster vaccine dose. Next, we analyzed the plasma levels of soluble T cell activation/exhaustion markers. MethodsHome-dwelling older adults (n = 68, median age 86) and younger healthcare workers (n = 35, median age 39), previously vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2, were given a booster dose at ten months after the initial dose. Our analysis consisted of spike-specific IgG, neutralizing antibodies, memory B cells, IFN-γ and IL-2 secreting T cells and soluble T cell exhaustion/activation markers. ResultsFollowing the initial two doses, the elderly cohort exhibited lower humoral and IFN-γ responses compared to younger adults. The booster dose increased the humoral responses in both older and younger adults. At two months after the booster dose, older and younger vaccinees had comparable levels of antibodies and the responses were maintained up to 18 months. The younger cohort elicited an increase in the cellular response, while no increase was detected in the elderly. The elderly had higher plasma levels of soluble forms of the T cell activation/exhaustion markers CD25 and TIM-3, which inversely correlated with age and T-cell cytokine responses. This suggests that these markers may be related to the observed dysfunctional cellular cytokine response in older adults. However, both elderly and younger adults who experienced breakthrough infections after booster vaccination, elicited more robust humoral and IFN-γ responses. ConclusionsThe booster dose elicited neutralizing and spike-specific antibody responses in the elderly that were comparable with that of the younger cohort. However, the lack of a strong cellular cytokine response to the third dose in the elderly may explain their vulnerability to severe infection and may be a consequence of exhausted or senescent T cell responses. (https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04706390).

Indonesia, located within the Pacific Ring of Fire, is exposed to significant tsunami risk that poses a substantial threat to its vulnerable coastal communities. Among the most at-risk areas are the coastal villages, where rapid population growth and limited disaster preparedness infrastructure further exacerbate vulnerability. One such community is Tambakrejo Village in Blitar Regency, which faces high tsunami risk due to its proximity to a seismic gap in the megathrust zone. This study investigates tsunami risk and community preparedness in Tambakrejo Village by integrating spatial analysis of potential inundation areas with community readiness assessment. Guided by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the LIPI-UNESCO/ISDR community preparedness framework, the research employs a mixed-method approach combining GIS-based tsunami inundation modeling with a comprehensive community assessment. Data collection involved surveying 100 households through incidental random sampling, conducting semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, organizing focus group discussions, and performing field observations. Spatial analysis revealed that 1.7289 km² (16%) of the village area is susceptible to tsunami inundation, potentially affecting 911 residents, with Krajan Sub-village identified as particularly vulnerable due to its high population density and coastal proximity. The community preparedness assessment, evaluating knowledge and behaviour, emergency planning, warning systems, and resource mobilization capacity, yielded an index value of 60.12. This index was derived using a grading method from the LIPI-UNESCO/ISDR (2006) framework, based on four main parameters: Knowledge and Behavior (KB), Emergency Planning (EP), Warning System (WS), and Resource Mobilization Capacity (RMC). The index places the village in the "Almost Ready" category, with resource mobilization identified as the weakest parameter. The research contributes to the literature by presenting a novel integration of geospatial analysis with community-based preparedness assessment at the village scale, offering a replicable methodology for evaluating tsunami preparedness in rural coastal settings. Findings provide crucial insights for local authorities and disaster management agencies to enhance tsunami preparedness through targeted interventions and evidence-based decision-making in disaster risk reduction planning.

Although various approaches have been used to assess potential casualties in major earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis in coastal areas, few studies have compared these approaches. This study conducted a comparative analysis of a simplified approach, which rapidly estimates casualty numbers but lacks detailed modelling of evacuation behaviour and tsunami inundation, and an agent-based model (ABM), which provides detailed simulations but involves significant computational costs. By applying both approaches to a potential Genroku Kanto earthquake and tsunami scenario in a Japanese coastal city, the number of casualties was evaluated under different evacuation start times and with or without building collapse. The results revealed significant discrepancies between the simplified approach and ABM, particularly in the spatial distribution of casualties, highlighting the importance of incorporating detailed evacuation behaviours and inundation processes when estimating casualties. Additionally, predictive equations were developed using multivariate regression analysis, which produced closer results to those of the ABM than the simplified model. These findings demonstrate that casualty numbers can be effectively predicted using key urban parameters such as building and road layouts, tsunami inundation depth, and tsunami arrival time, paving the way for future research to develop more comprehensive and adaptable casualty estimation approaches.

Laboratory experiments were conducted for tsunami inundation to an urban area with large building roughness. The waterfront portion of the city of Seaside which is located on the US Pacific Northwest coast, was replicated in 1/50 scale in the wave basin. Tsunami heights and velocities on the inundated land were measured at approximately 31 locations for one incident tsunami heights with an inundation height of approximately 10 m (prototype) near the shoreline. The inundation pattern and speed were more severe and faster in some areas due to the arrangement of the large buildings. Momentum fluxes along the roads were estimated using measure tsunami inundation heights and horizontal fluid velocities. As expected, the maximum momentum flux was near the shoreline and decreased landward. 3D LES (Large Eddy Simulation) model with two-phase flow was used to compare its simulation results with experimental results. The model results of tsunami heights qualitatively agreed with the data collected from the experiment.