Spatiotemporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Nine Provinces along the Yellow River since the 21st Century Using Nighttime Light Data

Abstract

Monitoring carbon emissions is crucial for assessing and addressing economic development and climate change, particularly in regions like the nine provinces along the Yellow River in China, which experiences significant urbanization and development. However, to the best of our knowledge, existing studies mainly focus on national and provincial scales, with fewer studies on municipal and county scales. To address this issue, we established a carbon emission assessment model based on the “NPP-VIIRS-like” nighttime light data, aiming to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of carbon emissions in three different levels of nine provinces along the Yellow River since the 21st century. Further, the spatial correlation of carbon emissions at the county level was explored using the Moran’s I spatial analysis method. Results show that, from 2000 to 2021, carbon emissions in this region continued to rise, but the growth rate declined, showing an overall convergence trend. Per capita carbon emission intensity showed an overall upward trend, while carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP showed an overall downward trend. Its spatial distribution generally showed high carbon emissions in the eastern region and low carbon emissions in the western region. The carbon emissions of each city mainly showed a trend of “several”; that is, the urban area around the Yellow River has higher carbon emissions. Meanwhile, there is a trend of higher carbon emissions in provincial capitals. Moran’s I showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing and gradually tended to a stable state in the later stage, and the pattern of spatial agglomeration was relatively fixed. “High–High” and “Low–Low” were the main types of local spatial autocorrelation, and the number of counties with “High–High” agglomeration increased significantly, while the number of counties with “Low–Low” agglomeration gradually decreased. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the carbon emission trends of the study area, as well as the references that help to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals proposed by China.