Spatiotemporal Co-occurrence Patterns of Periodontitis and Oral Cancer: A Global Risk Factor and Network Analysis.

How COVID‐19 pandemic, global risk factors, and oil prices affect Islamic bonds (Sukuk) prices? New insights from time‐frequency analysis

We analyze the cross-border propagation of systemic risk in the international sovereign debt market. Using daily data on CDS spreads for 67 sovereign borrowers from 2002 to 2013 we define sovereign credit events as those in which the spread widens by more than 99.9% of all spread changes within regions. We find a total of 89 such credit events, most of them taking place after 2007. We analyze contagion by studying the immediate effects of these events on CDS spreads of other sovereigns within the region and in the rest of the world. Although a few events had effects that were global in scope, we find that such “fast and furious” contagion has been by and large a regional phenomenon. To analyze “slow burn” spillover effects, we extract the first principal component of CDS spread changes to identify a global sovereign risk factor. The corresponding loadings on this factor then serve to measure the sensitivity of individual sovereign CDS spreads to the global factor. We allow these loadings to vary over time and interpret them as measures of vulnerability to global systemic risk. We find that the global “slow-burn” spillover of credit events works through the global risk factor rather than through sovereign obligors’ systemic vulnerabilities. While the global factor and regional vulnerabilities are both influenced by investors’ risk appetites, such vulnerabilities also depend on economic fundamentals, including the sovereign’s level of government debt.

W e identify a “slope” factor in exchange rates. High interest rate currencies load more on this slope factor than low interest rate currencies. This factor accounts for most of the crosssectional variation in average excess returns between high and low interest rate currencies. A standard, no-arbitrage model of interest rates with two factors—a country-specific factor and a global factor—can replicate these findings, provided there is sufficient heterogeneity in exposure to global or common innovations. We show that our slope factor identifies these common shocks, and we provide empirical evidence that it is related to changes in global equity market volatility. By investing in high interest rate currencies and borrowing in low interest rate currencies, U.S. investors load up on global risk. ( JEL G12, G15, F31) W e show that the large co-movement among exchange rates of different currencies supports a risk-based view of exchange rate determination. In order to do so, we start by identifying a slope factor in exchange rate changes: The exchange rates of high interest rate currencies load positively on this factor, while those of low interest rate currencies load negatively on it. The covariation with this slope factor accounts for most of the spread in average returns between baskets of high and low interest rate currencies—the returns on the currency carry trade. We show that a no-arbitrage model of interest rates and exchange rates with two state variables—country-specific and global risk factors—can match the data, provided there is sufficient heterogeneity in countries’ exposures to the global risk factor. To support this global risk interpretation, we provide evidence that the global risk factor is closely related to changes in volatility of equity markets around the world. We identify this common risk factor in the data by building monthly portfolios of currencies sorted by their forward discounts. The first portfolio contains

In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond-level sovereign spreads for dollar-denominated bonds issued by more than 50 countries from 1995 to 2020 and use various indicators to measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global financial risk causes a large and persistent widening of sovereign bond spreads. These effects are strongest when measuring global risk using the excess bond premium, which is a measure of the risk-bearing capacity of US financial intermediaries. The spillover effects of global financial risk are more pronounced for speculative-grade sovereign bonds.

Global network analysis within migration studies. There is a growing literature in migration studies on global networks (Boyd, 1989; Portes, 1995; Douglas et al, 2005). This is arguably linked to the general shift in network analysis, as Robert Holton notes, from seeing networks as part of an organized system (Castells) to seeing them as nodes with a very fluid, mobile, and uneven set of flows (Urry) (Holton, 2005:76). This accrued meaning of networks seems in part to derive and in part to adapt to the contemporary differentiation, acceleration and globalization of migration patterns (Castles and Miller, 2005:9). Social Capital The heuristic potential of network theories within migration studies is evident in the cross-fertilization with social capital and ethnic entrepreneurship notions. Global networks are often theorized as migrants' social capital, and social capital is seen as sustained by migrants' networks (Massey at al, 2005 :96, Portes, 1995). In this sense migrants' social networks are defined as interpersonal ties that link migrants, former migrants, and potential migrants in origin and destination areas through the connections of kinship, friendship, and shared community origin (Massey at al, 2005:96). The existence of these ties is hypothesized to increase the likelihood of emigration by lowering the costs, raising the benefits and mitigating the risks of international movement (Massey at al, 2005:96). Transnationalism and diaspora Diasporic and transnational studies have brought a somewhat different emphasis to the dynamics of interconnectedness (Gilroy, 1993) inscribed in global networks. This approach has allowed us to grasp a more articulated understating of migrants' belongings, of their fluid identities and trans-border communities, conceptualizing global networks as those inter-personal connections across borders which are also inter-communal and inter-organizational (Werbner, 2004:896). Pnina Werbner emphasizes how in the global village these networks are sustained by daily contact by telephone, email, low cost flights mobile phone, which make instant connection and communication an experienced reality for transmigrants (Werbner, 2004:896). Paul Gilroy highlights the extra-nationality, [and] trans-cultural and intercultural processes that sustain global networks (Gilroy, 1997:339). Global theories, according to him, do not allow the same theoretical progress as network analysis, because they possess a too totalising immodesty and ambition (Gilroy, 1997:339). Perhaps this is too harsh a criticism, especially considering certain strands of globalization theories, which look at 'the people side of globalization' and bottom up forms of globalization. For example, Braithwaite and Drahos advance an articulation of globalization with individual agency while distinguishing between webs of powers (elite networks of business and government officials) and webs of dialogues (look at the cooperation and sharing of knowledge) (Braithwaite and Drahos, 2000 in Holton, 2005:77). Household networks Another important contribution within migration studies, is that network theories have shed new light on household and family dynamics. Networks represent a meso-level of analysis which considers both the structural and individual forces shaping migration, and looks at how classed, gendered, sexualized member of the household influence and sustain migration projects (Phizacklea, 2000:122; Hondogneu-Sotelo, 2003; Werbner, 2004). This has been particularly relevant in unpacking gender dynamics of migration, although the gendered nature of networks still remain largely undiscovered and gendered theorizations of networks still need to be developed. Ultimately the intersecting contribution of transnational, diasporic and global perspectives in network analysis has been vital to conceptualizing the complexities of modern fluid societies. Within this framework, global networks can be understood as alternative or oppositional forms of contemporary belonging and citizenship, and network analysis as a site for thinking about the complexities of the social contexts in which migration occurs, especially the difficult question of connectivity and interaction among global subjects.

Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach

We provide a methodology to estimate a global credit risk factor from credit default swap (CDS) spreads that can be very useful for risk management. The global risk factor (GRF) reproduces quite well the different episodes that have affected the credit market over the sample period. It is highly correlated with standard credit indices, but it contains much higher explanatory power for fluctuations in CDS spreads across sectors than the credit indices themselves. The additional information content over iTraxx seems to be related to some financial interest rates. We first use the estimated GRF to analyze the extent to which the eleven sectors we consider are systemic. After that, we use it to split the credit risk of individual firms into systemic, sectorial, and idiosyncratic components, and we perform some analyses to test that the estimated idiosyncratic components are actually firm-specific. The systemic and sectorial components explain around 65% of credit risk in the European industrial and financial sectors and 50% in the North American sectors, while 35% and 50% of risk, respectively, is of an idiosyncratic nature. Thus, there is a significant margin for portfolio diversification. We also show that our decomposition allows us to identify those firms whose credit would be harder to hedge. We end up analyzing the relationship between the estimated components of risk and some synthetic risk factors, in order to learn about the different nature of the credit risk components.

We provide a methodology to estimate a global credit risk factor from CDS spreads that can be very useful for risk management. The global risk factor (GRF) reproduces quite well the different episodes that have affected the market over the sample period. It has high correlation with standard credit indices, but it contains much higher explanatory power for fluctuations in CDS spreads across sectors than the credit indices themselves. The additional information content over iTraxx seems to be related to some financial rates. We first use the estimated GRF to analyze the extent to which the eleven sectors we consider are systemic. After that, we use it to split the credit risk of individual issuers into systemic, sectorial, and idiosyncratic components, and we perform some analyses to test that the estimated idiosyncratic components are actually firm-specific. The systemic and sectorial components explain around 65% of credit risk in the European industrial and financial firms and 50% in the North American firms in those sectors, with 35% and 50% of risk, respectively, having an idiosyncratic nature. Thus, there is a significant margin for portfolio diversification. We also show that our decomposition allows us to identify those firms whose credit would be harder to hedge. We end up analyzing the relationship between the estimated components of risk and some synthetic risk factors.

The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion

We use deviations in the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) condition to examine violations of the law of one price (LOP). We use the time periods around the recent financial crisis to examine the dynamics of CIRP violations. We find that, for both developed and emerging economies, LOP tends to hold during normal economic times but that it is severely violated during periods of financial distress. In addition, we examine the determinants of CIRP deviations. Our results indicate that, in developed economies, CIRP deviations are primarily driven by global risk factors. In emerging economies, however, CIRP deviations are driven by both global and local risk factors.

Risk profiles: how do they change when stock markets collapse?

Analysis of 3,300 stocks from nine industrialized countries over the 1980–99 period indicates that whether the capital asset pricing model or some form of international CAPM is used makes little difference in the cost-of-capital estimate for most companies in most countries. The international CAPM yielded an estimate of the cost of equity capital that was significantly different from that of the domestic CAPM in only 4–5 percent of the sample companies. For the vast majority of companies, the domestic market factor is an adequate benchmark against which to measure an individual company's exposure to both global market and currency risk factors.

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

Maintaining good oral health is crucial for overall well-being. Oral health literacy (OHL) is a multidimensional concept that connects oral care behaviors, an individual’s oral health status, and their overall health. This study was conducted to explore the global prevalence and risk factors associated with inadequate OHL among older adults. Five databases were systematically searched for relevant observational articles from inception to February 2025 with no restriction on language or time of publication. The study’s protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42024576967). Among 1881 identified studies, 13 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results comprised 4305 participants, with approximately 51.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39, 0.64) having insufficient OHL. Substantial variability in inadequate OHL was observed across measurement tools and continental regions. The pooled prevalence of inadequate OHL was 60.7% in Asia and 23.2% in non-Asian countries. However, no significant difference in insufficient OHL was observed across different institutional settings. An older age (≥74 years) (pooled odds ratio (OR) = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.23, 2.54) and low educational level (pooled OR = 2.75; 95% CI = 1.87, 4.05) were significant risk factors of insufficient OHL. Publication bias was not detected in this study. The notably high prevalence of inadequate OHL and risk factors identified in this study suggest that comprehensive attention is needed from governments, local authorities, healthcare professionals, and communities. However, further studies conducted in diverse countries and incorporating more risk factor analyses would enhance the reliability and generalizability of these meta-analysis findings.

This paper explores the dependence of emerging European stock markets (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) on global risk factors (changes in gold prices, US implied volatility index and oil prices) based on daily data from 6 January 2004 to 31 December 2013. We employ a quantile regression model to analyse how the global factors affect stock returns under different market circumstances, such as bearish (lower quantiles), normal (intermediate quantile) and bullish (higher quantiles) times. Empirical results reveal that the response of stock markets is heterogeneous; larger equity markets, such as Poland, Russia and Turkey, are highly sensitive to the global factors while Bulgaria is the least sensitive. Overall, the dependence on gold and oil prices is positive while the dependence on US stock market uncertainty is negative. Additionally, in most of the cases, the dependence intensifies during bear market conditions, in which stock prices fall.