Spatio-temporal variability of snow over sea ice in western Hudson Bay, with reference to ringed seal pup survival

Abstract

Snow-covered sea ice plays a significant role in the ecology of the Arctic marine system and is a critical habitat for ice-adapted ringed seals; however, limited research has focused on the role of snow. The first two objectives of this study characterize the spatial and temporal variability in snow over the sea ice of western Hudson Bay measured from satellite (2002–2010) and how this variability relates to ringed seal pup demographic parameters. The final objective uses a regional circulation model (RCM) to estimate the future snow cover within the study area. Results indicated that the snow cover experienced interannual and interseasonal variability, however, typically increased in late spring. In addition, the Moran’s I statistics indicated clustering at small spatial lags for both seasons, suggesting similar snow depths (i.e., large-scale drifting) occurring at distances of 125 km. There was greater interannual variability in the clustering of snow during spring, compared to the winter season. These trends in snow depth were related to variability in seal pup survival; however, seal pup growth and body condition were not related to winter/spring snow conditions. The results from the RCM member runs suggest that snow will decrease by the end of this century, with a larger decrease occurring in the spring period. In addition, there will also be an increase in interannual and spatial variability during both seasons, which may have significant consequences to ringed seal population abundance through reduced pup survival within the study area.