Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of carbon storage in arid ecosystems: Integrated analysis using InVEST and PLUS models with machine learning.

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas.

Impact of land use change on carbon storage based on the PLUS–InVEST model: A case study in the urban belt along the Yellow River, China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） is an important factor affecting regional carbon storage. It is of great significance to study the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage for optimizing land management and improving ecological environment. The land use status of Henan Province has changed significantly in recent years. Based on land cover data and combined with InVEST and PLUS model， this study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of LUCC in Henan Province from 2005 to 2020， as well as the development trend of LUCC and carbon storage under the natural development scenario （Q1）， ecological protection scenario （Q2）， and urban development scenario （Q3）. The results show that： ① The total carbon storage of Henan Province decreased 87.47×106 t from 2005 to 2020， and the carbon storage of different land use types was as follows： cropland > forest > grassland > urban area > water area > unused land， which was consistent with the size of land types. ② In the future three scenarios， the area of six land use types in Henan Province was as follows： cropland > forest > urban area > water area > grassland > unused land. The construction land area increased obviously in Q1 and Q3 compared with that in Q2， the grassland increased obviously in Q2 compared with that in Q1 and Q3， and the increase mainly occurred in the central and northern parts of Henan Province. ③ The carbon storage under three scenarios in Henan Province showed a trend of "Q1 decreasing- Q2 increasing- Q3 decreasing" in 2035， indicating that the regional carbon storage will decrease by 12.80×106 t compared with that in 2020 under the condition of good ecological environment. Furthermore， the larger carbon storage was distributed in the western， northern， and southern provincial boundaries of Henan Province. There was a good consistency between LUCC and carbon storage change in Henan Province. Therefore， optimizing the spatial distribution of land use and formulating reasonable policies to protect grassland and forest will help to improve regional carbon reserves. This study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to further implement sustainable development and achieve the goal of "double carbon".

Against the backdrop of increasing global climate change and human activities, the impact of land use change on carbon storage has become a significant issue in ecosystem service research, particularly in the ecologically fragile arid regions, which poses serious challenges to climate regulation and ecological sustainability. To address this issue, this study focuses on the arid region of northwest China, systematically analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in land use patterns from 2000 to 2020 and their impact on regional carbon storage. The aim is to explore the potential impacts of land use changes on the evolution of carbon storage functions under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and economic development. This research employs the InVEST model to assess the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage, utilizes the PLUS model to perform multi-scenario simulations, and incorporates the Geodetector method to identify the main driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results indicate that: ① Over the past 20 years, land use changes in the northwest arid region have been significant, with continuous expansion of cultivated and construction lands, while grassland areas have first decreased and then increased, and forest and unused lands have substantially degraded. Notably, the increase in cultivated land area is particularly prominent, whereas the areas of forest and unused lands have shown a declining trend； grassland experienced a continuous reduction from 2000 to 2015, followed by a recovery from 2015 to 2020. ② In terms of carbon storage trends, carbon storage in the northwest arid region increased annually from 2000 to 2020, reaching 9.01×109 t in 2020, an increase of over 1.68×108 t compared to that in 2000, with grassland consistently contributing the most to carbon storage. ③ In the multi-scenario simulations, the carbon storage levels for 2030 under the natural development, ecological protection, and economic development scenarios were projected to be 9.10×109 t, 9.11×109 t, and 9.09×109 t, respectively, highlighting significant impacts of different development paths on carbon storage. Among these, the ecological protection scenario showed the greatest increase in carbon storage, indicating that reinforcing ecological protection measures can effectively enhance the carbon storage capacity of the region. ④ NDVI has been identified as a key driving factor explaining the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the northwest arid region, with a q value of 0.432 7. The interaction of NDVI with factors such as soil sand content and climate showed a significant two-factor enhancement effect, improving the explanation of spatial differences in carbon storage. This research reveals the close coupling relationship between land use changes and carbon storage functions, providing scientific evidence for ecological protection, optimal allocation of land resources, and strategies for enhancing carbon sinks in arid regions.

Based on the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal strategies, it is important to explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the drivers of spatial variation in carbon storage in the Northwest Arid Zone, which is vital to improve the carbon sink increment of the regional ecosystem and promote the regional carbon breakeven. The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile natural ecology, and with the rapid advancement of new urbanization, the rate of land use change has accelerated significantly, which has a certain impact on the carbon storage and fixation capacity of ecosystems. The PLUS-InVEST model was used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage under natural development, intensive development, water resource constraint, and ecological protection scenarios in Jiuquan City in 2035, and the parameter optimal geographic detector model was used to analyze the spatial divergence drivers of carbon storage. The results showed that:① the area of cultivated land, watershed, and construction land in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend from 1990 to 2020, whereas the area of the remaining land use types showed a decreasing trend. ② The carbon storage in Jiuquan City increased from 7 722 808.1 t to 7 784 371 t from 1990 to 2020, and the conversion of grassland into unused land was the main cause of the loss of regional carbon storage, accounting for 85% of the total loss. ③ All four development scenarios in 2035 showed an increasing trend of carbon storage, among which the ecological protection scenario had the most significant increase, with an increment of 76 989.29 t. ④ The degree of land use, population density, GDP density, and NDVI were the main driving factors of the spatial variation in carbon storage in Jiuquan City, among which the degree of land use had the strongest explanatory power (q value of 0.849), and the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors enhanced the explanatory power of each factor on the spatial variation in carbon storage. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis and decision basis for the integrated ecosystem management and territorial space optimization in Jiuquan City.

Over the past two decades, the tea plantation area in Meitan County, China, has expanded nearly 30-fold, driving significant land use and cover changes (LUCC) with unclear impacts on regional carbon storage. This study uses the PLUS-InVEST model to analyze LUCC impacts on carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and predict future changes by 2060. Results show a decline in total carbon storage from 3977.83 × 104 t in 2000 to 3960.85 × 104 t in 2020, primarily due to reductions in cultivated land and grassland. Although carbon storage in forest land and tea plantations increased, the overall trend remained negative. Multi-scenario simulations indicate that the sustainable development scenario (SDS) mitigates carbon loss, with a decrease of 31.53 × 104 t, compared to larger reductions in the natural development (NDS) and economic development (EDS) scenarios. Under the SDS scenario, carbon storage in forest land and grassland increased while construction land expansion was controlled. This study emphasizes optimizing land use and agricultural management to enhance carbon sequestration and protect ecosystems, highlighting the need for a balance between ecological protection and economic development for sustainable carbon management in Meitan County.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study applied the PLUS-InVEST model to predict the land use pattern in China’s arid Xinjiang Region in 2020–2050. The model assessed the carbon stock under four scenarios. Analysis of the historical LUCC data showed that the carbon storage in Xinjiang in 2000–2020 in five-year intervals was 85.69 × 108, 85.79 × 108, 85.87 × 108, 86.01 × 108, and 86.71 × 108 t. The rise in carbon sequestration capacity in the study area, attributable to the expansion of cropland, water, and unused land areas, brought a concomitant increment in the regional carbon storage by 1.03 × 108 t. However, prediction results for 2030–2050 showed that carbon storage capacity under the four scenarios would decrease by 0.11 × 108 and increase by 1.2 × 108, 0.98 × 108 t, and 1.28 × 108 t, respectively. The findings indicate that different land transfer modes will significantly affect Xinjiang’s carbon storage quantity, distribution, and trend. This research informs the past, present, and future of carbon storage in arid ecosystems of Xinjiang. It offers a reference for Xinjiang’s development planning and informs the efforts to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals.

Land use and land cover (LULC) change in tropical regions can cause huge amounts of carbon loss and storage, thus significantly affecting the global climate. Due to the differences in natural and social conditions between regions, it is necessary to explore the correlation mechanism between LULC and carbon storage changes in tropical regions from a broader geographical perspective. This paper takes Hainan Island as the research object, through the integration of the CA-Markov and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models, based on multi-source data, analyses the dynamics of LULC and carbon storage from 1992 to 2019 and the relationship between the two, and predicts future LULC and carbon storage under different scenarios. The results show that (1) the built-up land area of Hainan Island expanded from 103.59 km2 to 574.83 km2 from 1992 to 2019, an increase of 454.91%; the area of cropland and shrubland decreased; and the area of forest increased. (2) Carbon storage showed an upward trend during 1992–2000, and a downward trend during 2000–2019. Overall, LULC changes during 1992–2019 reduced carbon storage by about 1.50 Tg. (3) The encroachment of cropland in built-up land areas is the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage. The conversion of shrubland to forest is the main driving force for increasing carbon storage. The increase and decrease of carbon storage have obvious spatial clustering characteristics. (4) In the simulation prediction, the natural trend scenario (NT), built-up land priority scenario (BP) and ecological priority scenario (EP) reduce the carbon storage of Hainan Island, and the rate of decrease is BP> NT > EP. The cropland priority scenario (CP) can increase the LULC carbon storage, and the maximum increase in 2050 can reach 0.79 Tg. This paper supplements and improves the understanding of the correlation between LULC and carbon storage changes in tropical regions, and can provide guidance for the optimization of LULC structure in tropical regions with high economic development from a low-carbon perspective.

Ecosystem services (ESs) are crucial for sustainable development, as they impact human well-being. However, changes in land use/land cover (LULC) caused by climate change and social development can negatively affect ESs, particularly in arid river basins. This study focuses on current and future changes in LULC in the Kaxghar River Basin (KRB) in Xinjiang, China, to determine how these changes will affect the region’s ESs. The integrated PLUS-InVEST model was used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and changing patterns of habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS) under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and water protection scenario (WPS). Additionally, the Ecosystem Service Contribution Index (ESCI) was also calculated to evaluate the contribution of LULC changes to ESs. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average value of HQ in the KRB gradually decreased from 0.54 to 0.49 and CS trended slightly upward, with a total increase of 0.07 × 106 t. Furthermore, the changes in CS were highly consistent with changes in LULC. (2) From 2020 to 2030, the area of low-grade (0–0.2) HQ saw a continuous increase, with the fastest growth occurring in 2030 under the EDS. Meanwhile, under the WPS, HQ significantly improved, expanding by 1238 km2 in area. Total CS under the three test scenarios tended to decline, with the NIS showing the smallest decrease. (3) The expansion of cropland and unused land had a negative impact on ESs, particularly on CS, whereas the conversion to grassland and forestland had a significant positive impact. In conclusion, these insights will enrich our understanding of ESs in the study area and contribute to balancing the relationship between ecological conservation and socioeconomic development in the Kaxghar River Basin, as well as in other parts of China’s arid Northwest and similar regions around the world.

In light of ongoing changes in how humans interact with the environment, it is of great importance to quantitatively assess the impact of land use and cover change (LUCC) on ecosystems. Using a variety of methods, we analyzed land-use patterns and ecosystem service values (ESV) in 1990, 2000, and 2010; normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2010 in the arid region of Northwest China; and quantitatively assessed the effects of LUCC on changes in NDVI and ESV. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2010, the rate of increase in the amount of cropland and urban land was highest at 19.13% and 18.25%, respectively, followed by the rate for water cover (5.10%) and forest land (3.55%), while grassland experienced a reduction of 2.25%. (2) From 1990 to 2010, the total ESV increased by 1.82%. Changes in the amount of water cover and cropland were responsible for an increase in ESV of 1.42% and 1.10%, respectively, while the change in the amount of grassland was responsible for a decrease of 1.09%. Based on this, it seems likely that climate variability is a substantial cause of change in ESV. (3) From 1982 to 2010, NDVI showed an overall increase, first increasing significantly between 1982 and 2002 and then decreasing somewhat from 2002 to 2010. From 1990 to 2010, the contribution rate of LUCC to change in total NDVI was 26.74%, indicating that the contribution rate of climate variability to NDVI change was up to 73.26%. Therefore, over those 20years, climate warming and humidification had an important impact on the development of ecosystems in the arid region of Northwest China.

Under the background of global climate change and the "dual-carbon" goals, optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration services is crucial for achieving regional carbon neutrality and the coordinated development of ecological and economic aspects. Using the northern Tianshan economic zone as a case, this study combines the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the impact of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in four scenarios-natural development (ND), urban development (UD), farmland protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP)-on carbon storage by 2035. Additionally, a Bayesian network is used to analyze the driving mechanisms, and a spatial optimization zoning plan is proposed. The results show that: ① LUCC significantly regulated carbon sequestration services, with carbon storage distributed in a "southwest belt and northeast spot" pattern. High-value areas were concentrated in the south covered by forests and grasslands, and low-value areas were scattered in the north's construction land and unused land, showing a fragmented pattern. ② Multi-scenario simulations indicated that by 2035, carbon storage in the natural development scenario and urban development scenario in 2035 will have decreased by 0.74% and 1.56%, respectively, compared to those in 2020, while the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios will increase by 0.34% and 0.02%, showing that farmland protection and ecological constraints could effectively reduce carbon loss. ③ Based on geographical detectors and Bayesian networks, the study area was divided into ecological conservation, buffer, farmland optimization, and construction optimization zones. The northwest needs priority intensive development and carbon quota management, and the southern ecological core should limit development to restore vegetation. Optimizing the spatial pattern based on the current carbon sequestration services provides a scientific tool for land space planning and carbon neutrality paths in arid regions, assisting in defining ecological protection red lines and promoting ecological-economic development under the "dual-carbon" goals.

Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) has emerged as a primary driver of terrestrial carbon storage changes. However, the contributions of LUCC to Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) storage in subtropical forests remain unclear due to the complex and diverse LUCC trajectory. Quantitative assessment of the impact of different LUCC trajectories on carbon storage is essential for regional carbon cycle mechanisms. Therefore, this study focuses on Zhejiang Province, a representative subtropical forest region in China, to accurately assess the contribution of LUCC to AGC storage changes from 1984 to 2019. We first mapped the land cover patterns using the random forest and spatiotemporal filtering algorithm and then applied these patterns to drive an optimized BIOME-BGC model to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of AGC density. Finally, the LUCC trajectories were classified into three categories: afforestation, deforestation, and forest type transformations. Their contributions to AGC changes were isolated and analyzed through the trajectory analysis. The results demonstrated that the forest area of Zhejiang Province increased from 5.35 × 106 ha to 6.83 × 106 ha (+27.66%) and the total forest AGC storage increased from 80.52 Tg C to 124.16 Tg C (+54.19%) between 1984 and 2019. The increase in forest AGC due to LUCC amounted to 31.26 Tg C, contributing 71.63% to the total. Specifically, the afforestation, deforestation, and forest type transformations contributed 82.37%, −17.27%, and 6.53% to the change in AGC, respectively. Overall, the afforestation within the LUCC trajectories was the primary contributing factor to the growth of forest AGC in Zhejiang Province from 1984 to 2019. This study obtained accurate LUCC and AGC data, clarifying the contribution of different LUCC trajectories and providing a better understanding of the responses of the forest carbon storage to LUCC dynamics.

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) significantly influences the dynamics of carbon storage in thin terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating the interplay between land use alterations and carbon sequestration is crucial for refining regional land use configurations, sustaining the regional carbon balance, and augmenting regional carbon storage. Using land use data from the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) from 2010 to 2020, this study employed PLUS-InVEST models to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and carbon storage. Projections for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 were performed under three distinct developmental scenarios, namely, natural development (ND), city priority development (CPD), and ecological protection development (EPD), to forecast changes in land use and carbon storage. The geographic detector model was leveraged to dissect the determinants of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon storage, offering pertinent recommendations. The results showed that (1) during 2010–2020, the carbon storage in the PRDUA showed a decreasing trend, with a total decrease of 9.52 × 106 Mg, and the spatial distribution of carbon density in the urban agglomeration was imbalanced and showed an overall trend in increasing from the center to the periphery. (2) Clear differences in carbon storage were observed among the three development scenarios of the PRDUA between 2030 and 2050. Only the EPD scenario achieved an increase in carbon storage of 1.10 × 106 Mg, and it was the scenario with the greatest potential for carbon sequestration. (3) Among the drivers of the evolution of spatial land use patterns, population, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and distance to the railway had the greatest influence on LUCC. (4) The annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, and GDP exerted a significant influence on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage in the PRDUA, and the interactions between the 15 drivers and changes in carbon storage predominantly manifested as nonlinear and double-factor enhancements. The results provide a theoretical basis for future spatial planning and achieving carbon neutrality in the PRDUA.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and comprehensive development (CD). The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×104 hm2, and the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area, wetland, construction land, and unused land increased by 201.19×104, 208.47×104, 91.54×104, 51.30×104, 157.40×104, and 971.09×104 hm2, respectively. ②From 2000 to 2020, soil and underground carbon storage decreased, dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased, and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×106 t. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③Compared to that in 2020, the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×106 t, and the total carbon storage in the ED, EP, and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×106, 804.57×106, and 817.89×106 t, respectively; the CD scenario was the optimal development model. These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

The geological environment of the arid region in northwest China is unique， characterized by a long-term scarcity of water resources， which results in an extremely fragile ecosystem. In this context， studying the changes in carbon storage characteristics and the driving factors of spatial differentiation before and after the implementation of ecological restoration projects can provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration and sustainable development in arid regions. Based on land use data from 2008， 2013， 2018， and 2023， the study analyzed and predicted land use changes and carbon storage under different historical and future scenarios and explored the driving mechanisms. The study produced several interesting results： ① The spatial distribution pattern of land use changed significantly during 2008-2023. The expansion of cultivated land area was the most significant change， an increase of 12.89×104 hm2. ② During 2008-2023， the total carbon storage showed an increasing trend， increasing by 483.97×104 t. ③ Temperature is the main driving factor affecting the spatial distribution of carbon stocks （q value of 0.513）， and the interaction between annual average temperature and distance to government detected by the interaction factor is the main driving factor affecting the spatial distribution of carbon stocks （q value of 0.605）. ④Carbon storage is predicted to show an increasing trend in 2028 under the three scenarios of natural development， ecological protection， and dual protection of farmland ecology. Carbon storage will increase significantly in the ecological protection scenario， but the dual protection of ecology and farmland scenario increases farmland area while protecting the ecology and improving carbon storage. This study provides technical support for evaluating the ecological restoration effectiveness of the Shanshui Project and also provides a scientific reference for local realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. ⑤ With the implementation of ecological restoration projects， the area of ecological land in the region has increased in comparison to the period prior to these projects. Moreover， carbon storage has transitioned from a reduction of 382.95×104 t in the previous period to an increase of 277.2×104 t， indicating the significant effectiveness of the ecological protection initiatives.