Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne disease causing high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Urbanization, globalization, and lack of effective mosquito control have lead to dramatically increased frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemic in the past 40 years. The virus and the mosquito vectors keep expanding geographically in the tropical regions of the world. Using the hot spot analysis and the spatial-temporal clustering method, we investigated the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016 to identify spatial-temporal clusters and elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. We detected two important spatial-temporal clusters in Sri Lanka. Dengue incidences were predicted by combining historical dengue incidence data with climate data, and hot and cold spots were forecasted using the predicted dengue incidences to identify areas at high risks. Targeting the hot spots during outbreaks instead of all the regions can save resources and time for public health authorities. Our study helps better understand how climatic factors impact spatial and temporal spread of dengue virus. Hot spot prediction helps public health authorities forecast future high risk areas and direct control measures to minimize cost on health, time, and economy.
Highlights
Dengue is a vector-borne disease causing high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries
A large proportion of dengue virus (DENV) infections, especially in children, progresses from mild dengue fever (DF) to a more severe and life-threatening disease known as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)[3]
Dengue is an all-year-around disease in Sri Lanka with peak number of reported dengue cases usually occurring during the two monsoons
Summary
Dengue is a vector-borne disease causing high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Urbanization, globalization, and lack of effective mosquito control have lead to dramatically increased frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemic in the past 40 years. Hot spot prediction helps public health authorities forecast future high risk areas and direct control measures to minimize cost on health, time, and economy. Dengue (DEN) is a vector-borne disease in humans as a major public health concern in many tropical and subtropical countries[1]. It is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease that has increased 30-fold over the last 50 years, and keeps expanding its geographic distribution globally[2]. The population dynamics of the vectors is sensitive to environmental conditions[12], such as humidity, precipitation, and temperature[13,14,15]
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