Spatial study of leprosy in Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012: an approach based on the local empirical Bayesian model.

Abstract

to compare the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of epidemiological indicators of leprosy, both crude and also corrected using the empirical Bayesian model, Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012. this was an ecological study using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System; all 417 municipalities in Bahia were included and the following indicators per 100,000 inhabitants were analyzed - detection rate of new cases in the general population, in those <15 years old, and in those with grade 2 physical disability -; the local empirical Bayesian model was used to smoothen the indicators, and Student's t-test was used to compare means. indicators estimated by the model were higher than crude indicators; estimated detection rates in the general population and in those <15 years old were higher than crude rates in 253 (60.7%) and 209 (50.1%) municipalities, respectively; areas of greatest risk were concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of the state. spatial distribution of the disease was heterogeneous and there was possible underreporting of cases.