Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), responsible for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), is widely circulating in Africa and Asia. The disease is a huge burden for the economy and development of the affected countries. In Eastern Africa, the disease is considered endemic. Because of the geographic proximity and existing trade between eastern African countries and the Comoros archipelago, the latter is at risk of introduction and spread, and the first PPR outbreaks occurred in the Union of the Comoros in 2012. The objective of this study was to map the areas suitable for PPR occurrence and spread in the Union of the Comoros and four eastern African countries, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) was developed. Risk factors for PPR occurrence and spread, and their relative importance, were identified using literature review and expert-based knowledge. Corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized, and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain PPR suitability maps. The accuracy of the maps was assessed using outbreak data from the EMPRES database and a ROC curve analysis. Our model showed an excellent ability to distinguish between absence and presence of outbreaks in Eastern Africa (AUC = 0.907; 95% CI [0.820–0.994]), and a very good performance in the Union of the Comoros (AUC = 0.889, 95% CI: [0.694–1]). These results highlight the efficiency of the GIS-MCE method, which can be applied at different geographic scales: continental, national and local. The resulting maps provide decision support tools for implementation of disease surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to the PPR eradication goal of OIE and FAO by 2030.
Highlights
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral animal disease, mainly affecting domestic ruminants such as sheep and goats and cattle and camels [1, 2]
This is the first study aiming to produce regional suitability maps for peste des petits ruminants (PPR) using Geographic Information System (GIS)-Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) method combined with outbreak dataset validation
There is a good consistency between areas identified at risk by the model and what is known about PPR circulation in the five countries of interest
Summary
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral animal disease, mainly affecting domestic ruminants such as sheep and goats and cattle and camels [1, 2]. PPR virus (PPRV) is transmitted by direct contact with infected animals through excretions (oral, nasal, feces) [8]. In areas of Africa where the disease is endemic, PPR exhibits a seasonal pattern with an increased number of outbreaks at the beginning of the cooler wet season [11]. This seasonality may be related to an increased survival and spread of the virus facilitated during the coldest months. Recent outbreaks of PPR in wild sheep and goat species indicate that PPRV is likely to be transmitted between domestic small ruminants and wild ungulates that share the same pasture. The potential and the direction of these spill-overs are still poorly understood [14]
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